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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (21537)	7/30/1999 11:46:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Shooting Linked to Daytrading excite.com

To: Les H who wrote (21537)	7/30/1999 2:01:00 PM
From: SBerglowe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Here is an excerpt quoted directly from Crawford's most recent newsletter. Obviously, he's manically bearish, but he has made some excellent calls in the past. Also, he's a diligent and knowledgeable market technician. Among the greatest planetary alignments we brought to readers attention were: Top day before the “October Massacre” of 1979, Biggest point decline in history (to that date) in 1986, Exact date of the Challenger explosion, Exact high day before 1987 CRASH, Exact day of KOBE Earthquake, Lunar Eclipse conjunct Pluto 2 days before Chernobyl explosion, Lunar Eclipse forming Grand Cross when Saddam Hussein attacked Kuwait, Saturn square Neptune date of “Hunt Debacle”, Saturn square Pluto date of Chiapas Uprising, Saturn semi-square Neptune date of Peso devaluation, Saturn/Neptune conjunction opposed Jupiter 2-3 days before Berlin Wall came down, Exact date of drowning of 900 in ferry accident, date of Diana's death…AND MANY MORE! THE NEXT 60 DAYS WILL MAKE ALL THESE LOOK LIKE A WALK IN THE PARK!! Never, Ever have we observed combination after deadly combination culminating one after another in a truly apocalyptic sequence. To those among the spiritual or religious communities, some of whom are planning gatherings for the Solar Eclipse, I give this advice: “START SOONER AND PRAY HARDER!” To those who believe in nothing, I give this advice: “If there's something you have really wanted to do and haven't done yet…DO IT NOW!” If there is someone you haven't told “I love you!” best to do that now, as well. Although the sequence has already begun building, it can be observed openly by July 18, and even the dull-witted will come aware by July 21 that something is amiss. The Biggest Events will most likely occur Monday, July 26 when the first T-square forms involving Sun/Mercury conjunction opposing Neptune, all square Jupiter! This is extremely inflationary and will disrupt currencies and financial markets. Possibility of chemical spills, deception, germ warfare and tragedies at sea. Then comes the Lunar Eclipse on the 28 th conjunct Neptune and square Jupiter = More of the same! The third T-square reaches maximum energy on Saturday, August 7. This combination of Sun opposing Uranus, both squaring Mars symbolizes Open, In Your Face Confrontation, Warfare, Explosive Tempers, Explosive Hardware! August 11, 1999! This is THE BIG ONE, The MOTHER of All Solar Eclipses about which the 16th Century Seer, NOSTRADAMUS wrote: “A king of Terror will come from the skies…”. Ebertin's Combination of Stellar Influences” says of Mars/Saturn = Uranus: “The ability to give as well as to take under provocation, the inclination to apply brute force, A test of nervous strength, the Intervening by Higher Power, separation, death. DELL HOROSCOPE Magazine opines: “This eclipse might augur a paradigm shift of global proportions.” Richard Giles writing for Gordon Michael Scallion's Earth Changes Report adds: “What's at stake here…is the basic stability and strength of the free market system. Struggles for control of the world economy and issues of ownership of the world's resources are in the balance. War over land and rights to resources are very likely. … Neptune in Aquarius will foster a mystical and humanitarian revival of the world at a mass level, offering many people their first transcendental glimpse of the planet. … in late July expect people claiming to be a messiah to emerge. This energy also favors sudden reversals of fortune in the markets.” The greatest after-shocks are triggered with the formation of a second Grand Cross on August 16-17 involving Jupiter, Neptune, Mercury and Moon. How many thousands of years since we have encountered a Double Grand Cross? The Pluto station on the 18 th will aggravate underground movement and likewise, the realignment of power structures, physical and social. Further powerful astronomic hits on August 24, 26 and 29 add to the general chaos of this intense period!

To: Les H who wrote (21537)	7/30/1999 3:33:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

TALK FROM TRENCHES: BAD NEWS IS BAD NEWS; MORE DATA, AUCTIONS 09:50 EDT 07/30 By Isobel Kennedy NEW YORK (MktNews) - "U, G, L, Y ... UGLY." If the bond market had cheerleaders, that would have been their call yesterday after the 1.1% ECI sucker-punched the unexpecting bond market. No mitigating factors -- "pure bad news for a market already buffeted by the Fed, record corporate issuance and a weakening dollar," as one of our more clever readers summed up Thursday's price action. U.S. Treasury prices are under pressure again Friday. The market largely ignored a 0.7% rise in June personal income and a 0.3% gain in personal consumption. It was considered of zero importance since Thursday's GDP report incorporated the data and showed real consumption +4.0% in Q2. "Stay tuned for more important data at 10:00 EDT," one source said. Chicago Purchasing Manager's index and new home sales will be released at that time. Looking ahead, the market will focus on Monday's NAPM report and next Friday's much dreaded July Employment report. Wedged in between will be the August refunding announcement of fives, tens and bonds. If retail does not show some interest at these levels, "further price concessions may be necessary to digest that supply," one salesperson said. Corporate supply eased up a bit this week due to widening spreads but there is more on the horizon. Sun Microsystems is expected to sell $1.5 billion in three, five, seven and ten-year tranches today. Price talk of the deal has improved since the credit was upgraded by Moody's yesterday to Baa1 from Baa2. Standard and Poors rates the issue to BBB+. Next week, Wal-Mart is expected to price a jumbo issue of $5 billion in twos, fives and tens. But keep in mind, the issuer has a total shelf of $10 billion and it has become commonplace for these big issuers to offer larger and larger deals whenever they get the chance, market players say. Near term, most players look for the Treasury market to trade sideways or slightly lower through the August refunding. Retail accounts are said to be targeting 5.70% on the two-year and 6.15% on the bond as re-entry levels. Currently twos hover around 5.65% and bonds around 6.10%. Once the mid-August refunding is out of the way, the market is expected to go back to sleep until Labor Day when the Street returns from vacation. At that time, some players are calling for a big rally. Others are looking for a "real correction." They think higher rates are clearly in the cards and that the two-year note must back up to 6.00% in the face of additional Fed tightenings. The dollar continues under pressure and is affecting people's appetite for dollar assets. Friday, the euro-dollar stabilized around $1.07 and traders said the ongoing weakness may encourage more and more to get out of dollar assets. Here is another negative to watch for. Sources say they have begun to focus on commodity prices as the record heat and drought conditions continue to affect many parts of the U.S. "The drought will affect corn and soybean prices. That affects cattle feed prices and that eventually impacts cattle and hog prices," one observer said. Amid all the gloom and doom is there any bright light on the horizon? Sources say the market should get an element of support from month-end index buying later on today. However, extensions are said to be less than average this go around and buying will likely be limited. Oh well, have a good weekend.

To: Les H who wrote (21537)	7/30/1999 3:35:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

RECONSIDERING THE 2Q US GDP REPORT: VALUATION ADJUSTMENT CUT INVENTORIES 11:22 EDT 07/30 By Joseph Plocek WASHINGTON (MktNews) - Some of the surprising negative $19.3 billion change in second quarter business inventories in the latest GDP report was the result of arcane accounting methodologies employed by the Commerce Department that could be misguided, sources say. Jennifer Ribarsky, inventory analyst at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, confirmed the second quarter Inventory Valuation Adjustment was a minus $20.2 billion for non-farm businesses, more than the total change in business inventories. In other words, the Commerce Department's adjustments more than accounted for the drop in inventories in the second quarter. The IVA data are no longer released as part of the standard GDP report. The data are on the Commerce Department's subscription service, Stat-USA and other sources on the Internet, where underlying details are made available after the main report is made public. IVA is meant to convert book values for inventories to historical replacement cost. So, book values plus the IVA should equal the current dollar change in business inventories. But private analysts said the magnitude of the IVA was a surprise. Monthly data on inventories, showed the April-May average 0.8% above the 1Q average, and the BEA assumed a further gain in non-auto inventories in June. Analysts assumed inventories would be at worst a neutral in the GDP accounts. IVA is moved by prices, Ribarsky confirmed, and "petroleum and utilities prices rose in second quarter and did affect the (inventory) total." But some other prices were higher, as well, she said, citing food. When prices rise, the IVA is negative, Ribarsky said, but it should not affect the "real" -- price adjusted -- measures. But there were other factors at work as well. A big negative $15 billion of the inventory decline was in the retail sector. Ribarsky said, and the big story there was autos. The auto IVA was negative $7.1 billion, about a third of the total. Overall, the Commerce Department said the change in business inventories cut 0.86 point from growth in 2Q. In other words, if IVA is recalibrated, growth could be reported at something up to 3.2%, about where expectations stood prior to Thursday's report.