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To: Kirk © who wrote (7327)	7/30/1999 4:04:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Kirk /Mr. BSL: Would you say that "generally three tests are enough" unless exogenous factors impact the market as they surely did last fall with the Russian devaluation and implosion, the LT Capital Management debacle... ?? Would you also say that the probability is high that 3 tests would be sufficient given the age of this bull market, today's record high valuations and investor complacency, and the FED's slowing of money supply growth during the past 6 months, together with one rate hike and another likely in the works ? P

To: Kirk © who wrote (7327)	7/30/1999 7:46:00 PM
From: Mr. BSL	Respond to of 15132

<<but.... remember we had several successful tests of 8650 benchmark last fall then we failed and went to 7450. How do you know how many "tests" are needed? three tests is not a sure thing...>> May I split hairs? The Ralphie drop on Tuesday Aug 4th took us down to 8463.4 with a close of 8487.3. The first retest came on Aug 11 and it Failed! The Dow closed at 8462.9, a full 0.5 points below the benchmark low <g>. The purist would expect another leg down before making another benchmark. You are correct that we had a series of successful retests follow this. You are also correct in that benchmark highs and lows are not a sure thing. However, tests of these areas are fairly reliable indicators in an arena that holds few good indicators. Take care and thanks for the summary links. Dick