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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: still learning who wrote (21580)	7/30/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

re astrology: I don't make fun of anything. Not FA, not TA, not astrology, not I Ching, not "gut feelings" not even brokerage analysts :) It's very hard for anyone to "objectively" analyze anything, because all attempts to "quantify reality" require a "reduction" in what you observe. Both FA and TA are "reductionist," in fact, but just give more weight to different things. So, in many ways, everything -- including astrology -- can be considered a "sentiment indicator." (which is also, of course, a reductionist view :-) doug

To: still learning who wrote (21580)	7/30/1999 5:32:00 PM
From: SBerglowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

He's also a technician (Crawford). I believe he used to work with Robert Farell at Merrill Lynch. From Crawford's recent leter: "Despite New High levels in the Major stock Indices, the NYSE Advance-Decline line is –1478 from the May 13 previous high, rendering a considerable non-confirmation. The A/D Line itself remains down near the lows of last October, proving the Lie of a new HIGH in the general market. Although the 10-day New Highs list has finally surpassed the 52-week New Lows, the 10-day New Lows remain at very high levels (now 70.5) while most analysts consider 40-plus as dangerous. At the same time, NYSE New Highs list has been unable to supercede ANY previous peak, evincing extreme long term weakness. (Chart last shown on front of the May 10 CP-It hasn't gone ANY higher!) Last month (page 3) we showed 2 charts pointing up that while the 5-day ARMS/TRIN Index was relatively high (strong), the CBOE Put/Call ratio was low and weak and we conjectured that a rally was probably due but that indicator configurations were not strong enough for a new Impulse Wave for adding additional Bull Legs to the overall market. In this frame, the ARMS and Put/Call are confirming each other, as both drop into deep Overbought readings. We contend that this new high in the majors, unconfirmed by almost all technical considerations, is a farce and a fraud, and will NOT be able to continue, NOT EVEN ONE MORE DAY!! In this case, 5-day Arms (TRIN) is breaking to levels generally associated with market highs, while the 3-day CBOE Put/Call ratio has just broken to low ground untouched FOR YEARS! (Chart this page – indicates immediate SELL!) In addition to serious Interest Rate concerns, Sentiment Indicators are giving the loudest warnings. BEARS have continued to decrease, even as markets tumbled, and Hot Stocks were cut in half. The report of Consumer Sentiment confirmed an 8 th month of increase to the highest levels in 32 years. Mr. Greenspan on TV goes on & on about a BUBBLE that may or may not exist. “Do you see a bubble? I don't see a bubble!” His actual mention of a potential bubble, much less his dwelling on the possibility is a grave danger signal, as is the Rubin retirement. Our belief is that he sees the danger and is getting out of harms way. Besides, since the IPO, Goldman doesn't need him there anymore. Incidentally, even Abby Joseph Cohen, their market guru, is giving positive projections. If you notice the small print, it's the Least Positive she's been in several years. The Most Important Period of this year, as far as the stars are concerned, is not Y2K-day, it's the upcoming Eclipse series and accompanying massive configurations. and a Bear Trap of Momentous Proportion!"

To: still learning who wrote (21580)	7/30/1999 5:59:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

still learning: Don't you remember the conversation with the guy who was beaten down by the thread (you were one of them, I believe) because he provided predictions without a basis(I can't remember the gentlman's name, but it was Chinese). The thread did not beat him down, but only responded to his negative remarks about this thread. He was then asked to provide his analysis. All he did was ante up "gut" feels. After his remarks about the thread, there was little tolerance for his "gut" stuff. If someone walks into a room full of people and starts swinging...one can not then argue that it is unfair when all those swung at begin to swing back...<g> EDIT: I am not keen on this astrology stuff myself. I think we would be much better off with a good psychic. Regards, LG