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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (7912)	7/31/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78783

<<I am being offered very low credit card rates on a temporary basis. To me that means there is lots of liquidity out there. I think asia is coming back strong and this is an economy where lots of people have not yet participated. My guess is that there will be no interest rate moves until after 2000,>> Take the first two sentences out of that, add to it the fact that Congress is going to either give us a big tax cut or a big spending increase (probably both - gotta love democracy), and you might see why I think Greenspan has a hairtrigger to tighten interest rates. And when the stock market trades at insane levels, the second short term interest rate increase has historically been the fatal one. Maybe Greenspan doesn't tighten - that's a nice analysis if you own bonds. But for stocks just think about the risk vs. reward. Reward - Greenspan doesn't tighten now, maybe we get a 10% move in stocks. - Greenspan does tighten. Game over. Dow 8000 by October. Those are odds I want to play on the short side. I'll keep you up to date so you know that I am putting my money where my mouth is. I shorted Citigroup yesterday. I shorted Amazon and TheGlobe.com today. I want to do one more on Monday, preferably not an internet. The last thing I want is correlated shorts. If I can get shares of Sunbeam I'll do that, otherwise maybe Providian (credit card lender to people nobody else would lend to, insane valuation, under investigation for its fee practices, book value is miles below the share price...enough said). Then I'll dig in and hope I'm right. I am making no recommendation here to anybody else. I am not an experienced shortseller - I have done two and one was a big loss and the other was a loss I stopped early (though I was right a month later). And make no mistake, this is a market call. I have made two of them, both bearish and both well documented on this thread. One I was very right and one I was very wrong. If the market doesn't drop 20%+ in the next three months, consider me wrong. I'm making a prediction, and have acted on it, so you're not going to talk me down now. We'll revisit this in November. Either TGLO will be at 3 or it will be at 30. Amazon will be at 40 or it will be at 150. The Dow will be at 11,000 or it will be at 8,000. I will admit I'm wrong...or I might exercise my right to gloat (discreetly of course). (But don't worry about me - I'm not the guy in Atlanta - if I am wrong it would hurt my net worth, but its not money I need to pay the mortgage.) JJC