PORTFOLIO UPDATE JULY 31:
For new lurkers, I update my portfolio from time to time so you can see how I have distributed my holdings among sectors, and track the winners and losers. This is a real portfolio – no smoke, mirrors, newsletters or other hype jobs. All of my position trades are recorded for the thread.
The markets have pulled back sharply, with the 50% Gains portfolio keeping pace with the major averages despite my efforts to hedge the long positions. It's time for defensive measures until the market puts in a new bottom and prepares for an end-of-year rally.
In dollar terms, the portfolio is once again 10% below its high for 1999 – which is still better than the major averages.
New additions (since 7/17): Long – EDFY, SSTI, ISWCX (replaces WCOM/MFNX/CMCSK), Short – XLK, VICL, CTIX, AMZN August 90 puts.
Out (since 7/17): CBUK, TGLO, STRM, APEX, WCOM/MFNX/CMCSK (replaced by ISWCX).
Now holding 51% techs and 48% non-tech stocks (with 1% cash). As planned, I cut down on the tech side and reduced my margin exposure to increase my room to short.
Portfolio currently ahead 49% YTD, down from +65% on July 17. Dow is up 16%, NASDAQ 20% and S&P about 8%. The Internet Index is now up only 38% YTD.
According to the Bloomberg Mutual Fund Center, the 50% Gains portfolio now ranks 10th in the top 25 US Technology mutual funds for YTD performance (I shifted from the Overall list to the Technology list because too many Asia or Russia-based funds were skewing the results). It takes +34% YTD to make the cut right now. The one-year performance (80) ranks 9th. bloomberg.com (select Technology Funds)
Core holdings: AOL, BRKB, CMGI, EGRP, FNDTF, FRNT, ISWCX (replaces WCOM/MFNX/CMCSK), LPAC, MSFT, MSGI, RNWK, SILK, URBN, VRIO: 54%.
50% Gains Candidates: BINC, CYPLF, DCLK, DIGL, EDFY, HPK, HSAC, IMCL, LWIN, PETM, PRVT, SBTV, SONE, SSTI, TACO: 36.3%.
Tradin' Trash: FPAFF, WEIR, EWEB: 4.4%.
Options: MFNX August 37.5 calls, PTEK August 15 calls, HMK Sept 16.6 calls, CUST November 17.5 puts, GIC December 45 calls, WMB January 2001 40 LEAP calls, T January 2001 56.6 LEAP calls: 4.3.
Cash: +1%.
Current shorts: CTIX, VICL, XLK and ICCSA. Equals 73% of portfolio value long, up from 5% on July 17. This is the highest short percentage I have ever held in the portfolio.
SECTORS: Communications back in the forefront as I cut back on Internuts during the market pullback. I plan to keep this ratio until later this year, when Internuts should rebound into the holiday E-commerce season. Options holdings are included.
Broadcasting/Communications: ISWCX, LWIN, LPAC, T LEAP calls, SBTV, HSAC, GIC December calls (24%)
Internet Services: AOL, CMGI, RNWK, VRIO, MSGI, PRVT, DCLK, EWEB (20%)
Financial/Insurance: BRKB, EGRP, SONE, EDFY (17.4%)
Retailers: URBN, WEIR, TACO, PETM (8%)
Software: FNDTF, SILK, MSFT (7%)
Gaming: CYPLF, HPK (7%)
Hardware: SSTI, DIGL (6.7%)
Biotech: BINC, IMCL (4.3%)
Energy: WMB LEAP calls (1.75%)
Travel: FRNT (1.3%)
Asia: FPAFF (1.3%)
Currently 18 winners and 14 losers, or 21 and 15 if you count shorts (options are too volatile to include week to week).
Comments, questions and suggestions more than welcome as always.
NEW – To level the playing field with mutual funds, I created the Fifty Percent Gains Hypothetical Mutual Fund (FPGHMF) with all my stocks over $100 million market cap, no shorts or options and no margin. The fund was started on June 13, 1999 with a cash balance of $50 million. Stocks are added and deleted at the same time as the real 50% Gains portfolio (except stocks under $100 million market cap).
Performance since inception (-2%)
Current holdings: AOL APEX BRKB CBUK CMCSK CMGI
DCLK DIGL EGRP FNDTF FRNT GIC HPK HSAC
IMCL LWIN MFNX MSFT MSGI PETM PRVT PTEK
RNWK SBTV SILK SONE STRM T TACO
TGLO URBN VRIO VUSA WCOM WMB
To match my main portfolio, I will drop APEX, CBUK, STRM, TGLO and VUSA while adding SSTI and EDFY and holding $3.67 million cash for now. |
