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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (7523)	8/1/1999 12:23:00 AM
From: Ken	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

<cannot tell you how pleased and relieved I am that we've cleared up this misunderstanding. I'm sorry to say that I really thought you didn't recognize that there are differences in both probability and consequence. ...of course there are! I have grossly set a scale of what I consider the most serious problems and consequences- you would be very surprised if I told you what my #1 worry is- I have posted almost nothing about it, as it is so frightening....I wrote a paper on it, showed it to a number of other very knowledgeable people-NOT 1 has minimized the danger from it, or rebutted my conclusions at all-that is one of the scarier aspects of it, as I had hoped someone would poke holes in it... As you know, I'm new to the thread. So much of what you've been posting recently lead me to infer otherwise. As I reflect on it, it was your tendency to throw the proverbial kitchen sink into every post. .....this is because of ONE thing, which I emphesize repeatedly, and which very few here, except for about 5, and definately none of the pollycrakers or DUHnialists , never have and probably never will really grasp----Y2KAPUTYOU IS SYSTEMIC, INTERRELATED, WITH DOMINO EFFECTS EXPECTED (by me) in every sector of society! It is difficult to discuss one area, without seeing the cascading effects down all the other interrelated sectors/chains also. Take our most recent transaction, for example. The subject was the effect of an IRS computer failure. I mentioned, by way of comparison only, the business of the Russian nukes. Your reply zeroed in on the example rather than the main point and shot back a bunch of additional risks in the same family as my example. This "piling on" of extraneous risks into every argument leaves the impression that you aren't making distinctions. There's also a certain strident quality in the tone of your posts. ..........ok The reason that I've been making all these "risk assessment 101" posts is that yours is one of the stronger voices on the thread and I'm concerned that it scares people. When people are overwhelmed with a mountain of catastrophic risks, they either panic or put their heads in the sand. I think that panic is one of the greatest risks to all of us, and panic is a risk that we, the people, have some control over. ......there is almost no time left...no time to coddle the fearful..let them wake up via a shock or by whatever methods they may otherwise find....they can panic now, while there is time, or panic with the rest of the herd when it is too late for all of them.... damn! survival is at stake- this is not school 101! I don't care if some get afraid of my articles....ALL THAT IS IMPORTANT IS THAT THERE IS LESS THAN 6 MONTHS TO PREPARE, AND MAYBE ONLY 5 TO STATE OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY, WHEN IT WILL ALSO BE TOO LATE! Its almost ball-cracking time...the TIGERS WILL SURVIVE,AND EVEN THEY WILL HAVE AN INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TIME! THOSE THAT AREN'T WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE CHANCE! Those that don't get it immediately will be in the last category...burnt toast! I realize that you have been studying these issues comprehensively for a long time. I have focused on only those that affect me, directly or indirectly. As a number of people have said, we are each in a different situation. One difference between yours and mine is that you seem determined to survive an apocalypse .....no i am not! Under the worst-case senario/s, life will NOT be worth living in my opinion! I am only planning and preparing for about a 9 on the scale. Anything higher is the apoocolpyse and others maybe enjoy a Mad Max lifestyle, not me. I am used to a cushy life, I cannot handle or care to at my age, anything much less--for example,I doubt I could enjoy life but at least would not find it worth living if I couldnt listen to my classical music collection for hours every single day, which the odds are will not be a possibility. and to do so with some comfort. I'd just as soon not be around in a post-apocalyptic world and I can make do without a lot of comfort for a reasonable period of time. So I haven't studied carefully or ranked ordered any of the most catastrophic risks nor studied ways to be comfortable for an extended period of bumps, merely to survive them. That's part of why I'm comfortable with a river-water approach to survival planning. ...I am a typical entrepreneur who would be totally helpless in a living situition requiring a pre-hi-tech, automation type lifestyle, no way would I care to! I am preparing for the potential case, that when the grid DOES GO DOWN, IT WILL COME BACK UP! That is the key to all my planning, not if or when, but how long it will take. Since our interests and research efforts are so disparate, I cannot pose a comprehensive counterpoint to your list of risks as you suggested. ....keep it simple- I was only curious to know your evaluation of importances from #1 down.

To: Lane3 who wrote (7523)	8/1/1999 12:36:00 AM
From: Scrumpy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

Kholt, Well stated. Ken's "study" of nukes provides no new information. Just another "hypothetical" tossed out by someone who has ZERO knowledge of their TIME-DEPENDENT launch systems, if any. Now, without going too far out on a limb...am I to believe that a warhead-tipped rocket relying on a Y2K non-compliant launch system will behave perfectly IN FLIGHT, with it's non-Y2K compliant clock and guidance system ? ONE COULD SPECULATE UNTIL THE END OF TIME. AND IT SEEMS THIS THREAD ENJOYS JUST SUCH. Scrumpy