Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (7368)	8/2/1999 8:04:00 AM
From: Dave Kahn	Respond to of 15132

Yes, your correct about the bear market signal, ETC but at this time I sleep better with more cash,, Just a sign of old age sooner than that later--- Thanks for all the stuff you do for us Dave

To: Kirk © who wrote (7368)	8/2/1999 5:20:00 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Hi Kirk - I was hoping somebody would comment about Sunday's show (1st hour) regarding the call Bob got from Peter. Peter stated he was a Broker and explained two items (1) how when somebody sells short, Brokerage firms tend not to pay interest on the proceeds from the sale while the position is on ....Bob did not comment but IMO this is very significant especially if You plan to hedge your stock portfolio with a short SPY position. While you wait the BEAR out; your account should be receiving interest on your short SPY position. Remember, you still will have to pay the SPY dividend. If you have a $500K account hedged with $500K worth of short SPY at 4% that's about $1,666.00/month in interest income you should receive. and (2) Peter described a possibility where interest rates could rise significantly due to disintermediation. This is were the Dollar becomes weaker vs. the YEN and the EURO. There were several reasons given for this but the net effect is that foreigners would sell their U.S. Bonds and invest this money back into their own countries. Bob poo-pooed this explanation but I thought it provided a rational reason for a longer-term movement for higher interests rates. Higher interest rates would be the driving force for a lower DOW, a weaker dollar would impact relative global earnings from U.S. internationals, and higher U.S. rates might trigger commodity inflation (i.e. oil, raw materials etc.) in the U.S. relative to the rest of the world. Bob assumed Peter to be one of these long term BEARS but I believe both positions can be correct. Peter's explanation was more of a long term possibility. Bob's timing model and indicators are fined tuned to measure relative changes (after they have occurred) so he can call the transition points and have his subscribers out once the BEAR has arrived. I sure hope Bob would revisit the weaker dollar scenario and describe how such a change might impact his timing model. I thought the astute Brinker Fans might have caught this discussion but I guess many are complacent with their portfolio gains and were out this weekend enjoying the nice weather. EKS