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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: J. Conley who wrote (14819)8/2/1999 8:29:00 PM
From: Mr. Sunshine  Respond to of 42804
 
<<This company is not "new" and carries with it Cabot, possible accounting
irregularities, the secondary which had no follow-through, and many many burned
investors (and some analysts) who previously believed in management and what
they had to say.>>

I am new to MRVC and appreciate well thought out and presented valid debate, such as this. The difference between J. Conley and Dana is that the former questions/attacks the stock with supported reasoning (which is healthy and contributes to disussion) while Dana attacks without supporting reasons, which does nothing to increase our understanding of the stock.

We can debate "management has lost credibility, accounting irregularities, etc", but not "The stocks a loser and you are all idiots."

J. Conley, I hope you continue to contribute to the thread - I want to hear valid concerns. Dana, however, will be on my browsemaster "ignore" list (his posts will not even show up) the next time he tries to cover up his apparent ignorance with rudeness.

Great Investing to All!!!

Steve



To: J. Conley who wrote (14819)8/3/1999 12:15:00 AM
From: Sector Investor  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 42804
 
<<This company is not "new" and carries with it Cabot, possible accounting irregularities, the secondary which had no follow-through, and many many burned investors (and some analysts) who previously believed in management and what they had to say."

<<If you are new to this stock and wonder why it trades at 15 in light of its great prospects, Dana and his like are part of the answer. >>

I think you are quite right - there IS a lot of baggage. But let's examine your points more closely

1) Cabot letter stock.

So what? Was this MRVC's fault that they got hyped higher than could be sustained? You can pick any one of a dozen "Internet" stocks and see the same thing. This was before I was around, so I missed this. Ask DeeJay though for his thoughts on this, as he was there.

2) possible accounting irregularities.

Even when Pink was here, NOTHING - not one fact was ever proven. There was LOTS of talk though, rumors of SEC investigations, etc. MRVC stated in their 10-K and in several CCs that the SEC had NEVER contacted them. The worst they can be accused of was being aggressive (but completely legitimate) in their accounting - along with a hundred other companies including CSCO and LU. When the SEC later changed their rules, MRVC VOLUNTARILY went back and adjusted 2 back quarters to follow the new rules.

To me that is squeaky clean. The "irregularities" exist only in the minds of people who never bothered to look closely - or want to use it as a short ploy.

3) the secondary which had no follow-through:

What exactly do you mean by that? That the stock declined from $39? The secondary was in September, 1997. What exactly is it that management failed to do here? They still had 4 quarters of increasing earnings (Q3 1997, Q4 1997, Q1 1998, Q2 1998) after the secondary - and the stock declined further after each one.

4) and many many burned investors (and some analysts) who previously believed in management and what they had to say."

OK, you got one. MRVC screwed up by giving a rosy Q2, botching the Q3 earnings warning, and not telling us earlier the cost of the spending spree that they were about to go on, hiring staff, building foundrys, acquiring startups and developing new products.

But you know what? Looking back on it, I don't think they even knew themselves. Up to that point they were a "lean and mean" niche player. Well, that means they didn't have the infrastructure (staff and internal systems) or Executive Information Systems (EIS) providing them with the information they needed to know those impacts. I believe that they never INTENTIONALLY mislead anyone - they just didn't know, as they had NEVER missed before in 8 1/2 years.

Did we get hurt? Yes, indeed. I still hold a few thousand shares with an average of $21+ (IRA, couldn't take a tax loss).

But I didn't whine about it. I bought more under $6. Then I bought a plane ticket to Chatsworth last October for the annual meeting, and went to look for myself, saw the products, talked to management, toured the facilities, etc. Then I came back and took my tax losses. And then I bought still MORE in December. Counting all my trading gains, my net cost is now about $7.

<<But it's all different now..... right? >>

It's getting there. I still would like to see Noam move to COO and have MRVC hire a new CEO that knows how to work the street. Elsewhere, there are improvements, prospects and opportunities everywhere you look.

The trouble with people like Dana is that they hurt themselves letting emotion color their decisions without looking closely at the data.

Don't mistake my bullishness on this stock as emotion. I am dead serious. I invest based on facts - every fact and trend I can find, and I do extensive analysis and synthesis. The market has SEVERELY undervalued MRVC - so much so that a 10-bagger from the lows in 3 years is quite possible ($50).

I am not "in love" with MRVC. I am "in love" with the profit opportunity here presented by the market. I plan on riding this stock until it is approaching full value - about the time Merrill Lynch upgrades MRVC, and then exit.

Meanwhile the skeptics will watch because they remain "unconvinced" and others will continue to whine. That is their right.



To: J. Conley who wrote (14819)8/3/1999 3:04:00 AM
From: Dana Adams  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42804
 
Some rational thoughts for a few fella's who just don't get it!

First off my humble thanks to J. Conley for his strong show of support for me on this public thread! Dee Jay, how soon does your own old mind forget the Canes of yesteryear! Was that college ball at it's best or what?

On to the subject of MRV Communications, ticker symbol MRVC.

Someone mentioned a fact in support of MRVC however upon further review it is a negative. 34 consecutive qtrs of record growth and the stock halted on a dime at 39 and change. Why on earth would anyone believe any dang price target of 40 with a year of bad operating results on their record now? For the fella who giddily posted about a ten bagger on MRVC, I have only one thing to say: Grow up before the wallet goes flying out the door!

Although no irregularities were proven the strong hint of such deeds, did this company no good! I, as many long time viewers here should know used to be the biggest and strongest supporter of MRVC and their management. To call me a short is utterly ridiculous and truly reveals the IQ level of those posting or even thinking such rubbish!

Other items of grave concern are as follows:

-Management's desire to say nothing everytime something good or bad happens. What gives here?
I still remember the alleged Japan deal to which Noam Lotan, CEO kept mum about. The list goes on but I think any long term holder knows what I am getting at. For a company with operations on multiple continents they sure act and behave like the 12 year old next door.

-Inability to control S,G&A costs at a time the majors were matching the low end switching prices.

-Inability to attract truly quality brokers and always trying to nickel and dime their way into big time markets. Ex....Doing the secondary themselves, while saving a few grand cost them big in marketing exposure.

-Extended periods of time of name confusion. Are we Nbase, MRVC or Marvel comic books?

I could go on but for now this should suffice. The future is now and not always 6/9 months from now. I believe giving a company 3 years+ is plenty and repeated cries of we'll get'em the next time just won't do anymore.

Have I lost some money on my investment in MRVC? Sure I have but you will not read a violin laced story about how my life savings were gutted. Nor will I get any of my children involved. I lose what I can afford to and will not get into any desperate dreams about breaking even on this POS stock. Has the price gone from 6 to 15? Sure it has but so what? I am not into day trading or short term gratification especially with a basis far in excess of 15 dollars.

I will continue to monitor and liquidate this stock via tight stops until finally there is nothing left to sell.

On a final note, I have found that usually the weak and misguided resort to using contrived names when posting on public threads.

God Bless the Canes and may the "strong and able" prosper as always!

Resectfully,

Dana Adams