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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Watcher's Thread / Pix of the Week (POW) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Watcher who wrote (13002)	8/2/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: Toni Wheeler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52051

sw.... GNLB this is the latest news release on Phase III trials for systemic lupus treatment, dated 3/31/99... notice FDA 'Fast Track' and expectation of new news 'this summer': prnewswire.com

To: Stock Watcher who wrote (13002)	8/2/1999 8:00:00 PM
From: Boddington	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52051

PLMD Polymedia Corp. 1/2 of 4M float traded in last 2 days. Price and volume increasing for weeks. Great earnings increases, and reasonable to expect more. quote.yahoo.com Great products that are selling increasingly well. If today was any indication of the attention to come, then it could really rocket with such a small float. Got in at $19 today. Expecting gap & more running. Seems to be takeover rumors back a bit, maybe they've resurfaced? I can't see any good reason for a 10x volume increase (compared to 65-day avg.) for no good reason? Either way, it deserves a look. Also, LTXX continues to look decent. Upgrade ot "outperform" by Lehman Bros. on Friday. quote.yahoo.com

To: Stock Watcher who wrote (13002)	8/2/1999 8:08:00 PM
From: Kevin Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52051

Stock, I'm not sure of the O/S this is what I am getting from the form(10qsb) maybe someone can help me understand what is being said exactly. As of March 31, 1999 the Company had 54,731,494 weighted average number of common shares outstanding as compared to 17,661,271 common shares as of March 31, 1998. biz.yahoo.com Any help would be appreciated. For now this is a MOMO for me, but it may be a keeper if I see more positives unfold. Thanks KC

To: Stock Watcher who wrote (13002)	8/2/1999 8:57:00 PM
From: greg lacki	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52051

i hear big dog and his group are buying greg

To: Stock Watcher who wrote (13002)	8/2/1999 11:26:00 PM
From: GERBER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52051

SPAZ: What do you think about this one ? SPAZ Good Post from RB Valuation Analysis - $12 by next year I decided to do a little more due diligence on this stock. The stock appears to have taken a beating when the company was forced to convert many of their contracts to fixed fee licenses because of the need for cash to cover some ill timed product developments. This bump in corporate history appears to be behind them and DVD revenues should be again determined on a license fee per unit basis based on recent press releases. I decided to focus on the DVD market since that seems to be the area where they are achieving the most penetration. First let's look at the 3/31/99 Financials and get some useful information. Gross Margin was over 99% of revenues. Operating expenses and other expense total $354K. Annualized X 4 and increased by 25% (raises, new hires, whatever?) is $1.8M. Now we need to guess what they are making per unit for each DVD video player manufactured using their technology. An appealing comparison is Gemstar International (GMST). GMST licenses the technology that uses the numeric code published in your TV program guide to record shows on your VCR. Although they operate in a mature market, GMST is trading at about 75 times 3/00 earnings. As recently as 7/15 they were trading at 93 times 3/00 earnings. There is no way determine from their financials what they get per unit shipped (Some of their licenses are flat fee based), but Hoover's says that they receive a fee of a few dollars a unit. To me, a “few dollars” is more than 2 and less than 5. I doubt SPAZ is receiving this much per unit (I could be wrong). In fact, let's just use 75 cents per unit in this analysis to be conservative. Now we have to determine what part of the DVD player market SPAZ's N-2-2 product is used in. Some of the big names that are absent from their current list of licensees include Sony, Pioneer, and Sharp. Using a somewhat outdated information source, Sony has said it expects to control about 30% of the DVD player market (3/18/99 article on www.techweb.com) Pioneer holds about 15% of the US market and a slightly larger percentage of the worldwide market. Sharp looks to have less than 15% of the market. So let's assume that licensed manufacturers will account for about 40% of the DVD players produced. Now we have to determine the size of the market. DVD players are becoming more mainstream and their market acceptance in accelerating. Several sources confirm that there will be about 4 million units in homes by the end of 1999 with about 5,000 movie titles available. (7/9/99 article at www.dvdreview.com) Here's the amazing part. Industry officials predict annual sales of DVD players will reach 60 million units in the year 2000 (7/28/99 press release by Matsushita Electric). Note that the Message From the CEO on SPAZ's website predicts that the potential market for 3-D audio (I'm assuming in all sound producing consumer products, while they appear to have a larger penetration in the DVD player market) exceeds 500 million units per year and he believes SPAZ controls about 15-20% of the market. The CEO has told us not to expect too much in the June quarter, but a solid impact on December numbers. Ignoring what results for 1999 will be and just looking ahead to 2000, if we take 60 million units X 40% X $.75 = $18M X 99% = 17.8 less $1.8M of cost = $16M less tax at 34% = $10.6M of net income. With 27.4 million shares outstanding, that's $.39 per share. A 30 PE yields a stock price of $11.70. This is just the impact of income from their N-2-2 technology on DVD players. SPAZ has other technologies and also licenses to computer manufacturers and many other consumer audio products. They just entered the exciting MP-3 market. You can substitute whatever numbers you want in the above analysis to determine your estimate. Using the 500 million units in the CEO message, the 20% market share, $.75 per unit, and a low 30 PE, you get a stock price of over $52. This stock has the potential to make a significant move based on the outlook for their products even if the assumptions in the previous paragraph are overstated. And their momentum in new licensee wins seems to be accelerating. IMHO, an investor willing to hold this stock for a reasonable period of time stands to profit handsomely based on today's price level. Good Investing

To: Stock Watcher who wrote (13002)	8/2/1999 11:31:00 PM
From: Kevin Clarke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52051

Stock, I found out how many shares are in CDNO's float, ragingbull.com This should be an interesting week, with rumors of a buyout Message 10784777, rumors of news coming to give the specifics of this deal biz.yahoo.com, insiders buying back shares biz.yahoo.com and rumors of someone buying 25million shares ragingbull.com, half of which could be BS. Sure does looks like CDNO is just getting started though. finance.yahoo.com We'll see what tomorrow brings. Best to you Stock KC