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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (7407)	8/3/1999 11:17:00 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Ian S: re:<the major integrated oil producers are attempting to artificially contrive an oil shortage with a view to raising prices unnecessarily at the pumps.> If this were so, how come many of the reported 1999 Second Quarter Normalzed Earnings of these companies were down over 20% - Conoco was down 46%. Has it occurred to you that worldwide refining overcapacity and the resulting glut in product inventories, together with competitve pricing in many markets that has resulted from depressed economic conditions in the Asia-Pacific and Europe could lead to the inability to recover in the marketplace the rapidly rising crude oil costs - Ero squeezed refining and marketing margins? There is no conspiracy. There's refining overcapacity and an inventory glut which is just now being worked off from the slowly recovering economies in the Pac Rim. If you don't believe the above, just go to the websites of the major integrated oil companies and READ THEIR 2nd QUARTER EARNINGS PRESS RELEASES. P

To: Ian@SI who wrote (7407)	8/3/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

API report shows unexpected rise in gasoline stocks REUTERS POLL FORECAST * ACTUAL FOR FOR WEEK ENDED 07/30/99 WEEK ENDED 07/30/99 CRUDE...........DN 2.000 MLN 336.234 DN 4.966 MLN DISTILLATE......UP 1.400 MLN 139.697 UP 4.392 MLN GASOLINE........DN 1.200 MLN 210.103 UP 1.944 MLN UTILIZATION.....DN 0.750 PCT 99.1 PCT DN 0.3 PCT PT *NB- The forecast is derived by polling at least six market analysts, omitting the high and low forecast and averaging. NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The American Petroleum Institute weekly stocks report, showing an apparent decline in demand for gasoline, sent oil prices lower late on Tuesday. The report showed a surprising rise in national gasoline stocks last week, the result of rising imports and tapering demand, analysts said. "It was really gasoline that was holding up the complex at this point," said Tom Bentz, a trader and analyst at Cresvale International. Forecasters had expected a build in distillate stocks, but the higher than predicted build of 4.4 million barrels may pressure the NYMEX petroleum complex. Market expectations were for an increase of 1.4 million barrels in distillate stocks. Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates said that the API data will be markedly bearish for refined product prices and slightly bearish for crude oil prices. "The gasoline stock numbers look decidedly bearish to me," Ritterbusch said. "It's up 1.9 million barrels. I thought we'd have a draw of three million barrels. Some of these revisions in refinery activity have gotten a few people out of sync." The crude statistics, showing a draw on stocks of nearly five million barrels nationally, were discounted somewhat because they've been so erratic in recent weeks. The latest week's numbers showed that 1.6 millioin of the increase was on the West Coast (PADD 5), which traders East of the Rockies tend to ignore. The Gulf Coast region showed a decline in stocks of 2.3 million barrels, though imports shot up last week to more than 9.5 million bpd, suggesting that the stocks number was lagging.