I don't think name calling is a particularly potent argument style, Terrence. Would you say that most Nobel Laureates are not respected scientists?
Also, you are using false arguments about global warming. As I posted here awhile ago, temperatures may actually go down in some areas while global warming occurs.
Here are some myths and facts about global warming. I think it is better to be well read and logical than an ideologue:
Global Warming: Myth vs. Fact
MYTH: Although thermometers located at Earth's surface indicate that the planet's average temperature is
higher today by about one degree Fahrenheit than it was 130 years ago, satellite measurements of the
temperature of the atmosphere thousands of feet above the surface indicate a much smaller warming since 1979.
The surface temperature data is incomplete and unreliable due to the heat-trapping effect of urban areas.
Therefore, there is no compelling evidence that significant warming has occurred.
FACT: Recent peer-reviewed research has shown that temperatures were inferred incorrectly from the
satellite data, and that these measurements may be unreliable for determining temperature trends. Even if a
satisfactory means for determining trends from satellite data were used, the trend could differ from thermometers
at Earth's surface since thermometers and satellites measure temperatures at two different places in the
atmosphere. At higher altitudes, temperatures fluctuate more than at the surface due to natural climate influences
like sunlight-reflecting particles from volcanoes. This variability or noise in the satellite record obscures the
warming trend due to the buildup of the greenhouse gases which is apparent in the global surface temperature
data. Furthermore, the depletion of the ozone layer, which has occurred mostly since 1979, has had a cooling
effect on the atmosphere which is more marked at higher altitudes than at the surface. Earth's surface has warmed
over both the northern and southern hemispheres, and the warming is apparent in data taken both on land and at
sea. Therefore, the urban "heat island" effect could not be causing much of the observed warming.
MYTH: Changes in temperature and changes in greenhouse gas emissions over the past century did not
occur simultaneously. Therefore, measured warming cannot be due to the greenhouse gases.
FACT: Many factors have influenced climate in addition to the buildup of greenhouse gases, so there is no
reason to expect the two trends to match exactly. However, computer models indicate that warming due to the
greenhouse gas buildup will dominate the other factors over the coming decades. These factors include small
changes in the output of the sun, a haze of particles arising from volcanic eruptions and from fossil fuel burning
which reflects sunlight, and natural variations of climate. In addition, the slow heating of the oceans leads to a lag
between emissions and their effect on temperature. Therefore, a simple overlay of greenhouse gas emissions and
temperature data is deceptive. When global temperatures are simulated with a computer model which accounts
for most of the additional influences, the result is consistent with the observed warming, and the buildup of
greenhouse gases is a dominant factor, particularly in recent decades.
MYTH: Computer models are unreliable as a guide to future climate change because they do not
reproduce past changes. In particular, they fail to account for the one-half degree warming over the past century.
FACT: When changes in the haze of particles as well as greenhouse gases are taken into account, the
models simulate a global temperature trend over the past century which is consistent with the observed warming.
In addition, there is increasing agreement between the geographical pattern of climate change predicted by the
models and the measured pattern of temperature change. Models reproduce other key features of global climate,
including the magnitude of the temperature variation from winter to summer and aspects of ancient climates
inferred from ice cores, pollen and fossil data.
MYTH: Carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere fairly quickly, so if global warming turns out to be
a problem, society can wait until after consequences occur to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
FACT: Carbon dioxide, which is emitted largely by combustion of fossil fuels, is the most important
human-made greenhouse gas. If emissions of carbon dioxide were halted today, it would take more than a
century for the atmospheric level of carbon dioxide to approach its pre-industrial level. Furthermore, about 15%
of all the carbon dioxide which has been emitted already would remain airborne for thousands of years, causing
warming indefinitely. In addition, the slow warming of the ocean creates a lag between emissions and their full
effect on temperature. In others words, the consequences of past emissions are not yet entirely apparent.
MYTH: Rapid warming occurred at early times without catastrophic consequences, so society and
ecosystems can adapt readily to any foreseeable warming.
FACT: Rapid warming occurred in some places at the end of the last glacial period, but since then, global
climate has been stable for ten thousand years. During this time, agriculture and civilization arose, leading to fixed
settlements, infrastructure, and large populations in areas which are highly vulnerable to climate shifts, such as
low-lying coastal zones. Furthermore, the existence of rapid climate changes in the distant past provides only
limited insight into the fate of natural ecosystems. Previously, rapid climate changes may not have occurred
everywhere at once, as they are expected to in the future. Furthermore, there were no human-made barriers to
inhibit adaptation by ecosystems. In contrast, human settlements, highways, and farmland will block migration of
species adjusting to the warming climate of the coming century.
MYTH: Warming has been occurring largely at night, which is less of a problem than daytime warming.
FACT: Warming over the past century has occurred both during the day and at night, but nighttime warming
has been the greater of the two. The buildup of the haze of particles from combustion discussed above has
probably contributed to this asymmetric warming. But as warming continues, the tendency toward nighttime
warming is expected to diminish, in part because the slow heating of the oceans causes a uniform atmospheric
warming over time. In any event, society and ecosystems would experience nighttime warming differently than
daytime warming, but may be no less problematic. For example, cold nighttime temperatures currently limit the
northward spread of certain infectious diseases. The most dangerous consequences of U.S. heat waves, such as
the 1995 episode in Chicago that resulted in 500 deaths, arise when nighttime temperatures remain above 80
degrees.
MYTH: The IPCC has reduced its projected global warming by 1/3. If we wait a little longer, the threat of
human-induced climate change may disappear altogether.
FACT: Computer models of climate have been adjusted to account for the cooling effect of particle haze,
which has resulted in lower projections of global average warming by year 2100. The reflection of sunlight by
particles partially masks, but does not eliminate, the buildup of the greenhouse effect. When developing countries
like China move to reduce the emissions of sulfur dioxide which generate these particles (as the U.S., Europe and
Japan already have in order to reduce health effects and acid rain), the hidden warming inevitably will be
revealed. The most recent estimates, including more accurate assessments of future sulfur dioxide emissions, have
once again increased the projected warming.
MYTH: Human activities only contribute 4% of CO2 emissions; the rest comes from natural sources like
decaying vegetation and forest fires started by lightning. The human contribution is too small to have a significant
effect on climate, particularly since the oceans absorb most of the extra CO2 emissions.
FACT: Before human beings began to affect the level of CO2 in the atmosphere, the natural emissions of
CO2 were nearly exactly balanced by natural processes which remove CO2. As a result, the amount of CO2 in
the atmosphere had changed very little for 10,000 years. The additional source of CO2 from human activity like
burning coal and oil for energy has thrown the system out of balance. Although the oceans and forests absorb
about half the CO2 emitted by industry, the rest builds up in the atmosphere. As a result, CO2 levels are now
30% above what they were in pre-industrial times. Similar changes of CO2 occurred naturally long ago and they
were generally accompanied by large shifts in global average temperature.
MYTH: The buildup of CO2 will lead to a "greening" of the earth because plants can utilize the extra
CO2to speed their growth.
FACT: Under the controlled conditions which occur in a greenhouse with ample water and fertilizer, plants
grow more rapidly in an atmosphere enriched by CO2. The extent that this effect carries over into natural systems
like forests is unknown. Some plants, potentially including weeds, may benefit while others may not. The
consequence for forests and other ecosystems is uncertain, but overall it is unlikely to counteract the adverse
impacts of a rapid climate change.
MYTH: If Earth has warmed since pre-industrial times, it is because the intensity of the sun has increased.
FACT: The intensity of the sun continuously changes, but there were no direct measurements of the size of
these shifts before 1979. Since then, the sun's variations have been very small. Indirect evidence suggests that the
Sun's variations in the past may have been large enough over the course of centuries to affect Earth's climate
significantly. However, several recent studies indicate that the warming effect of solar variations since
pre-industrial times is much smaller than the warming effect of the greenhouse gas buildup.
MYTH: The IPCC now predicts a global warming of only 1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius over the coming
century. This small change, much less than the current daily temperature range for most major cities, is hardly a
cause for concern.
FACT: The global average temperature has changed by less than a degree Celsius up or down for ten
thousand years. So the projected warming is expected to exceed any climate change which has occurred during
the history of civilization. In addition, even apparently small global average temperature changes will be
accompanied by much larger regional climate shifts. For example, a warming which is twice as large as the global
average is projected to occur at high northern latitudes. Apparently small global average changes also led to large
climate shifts in the past: Earth's average temperature increased by only about 9 degrees Fahrenheit between the
end of the last ice age and today, but much of the Northern Hemisphere went from being buried under thousands
of feet of ice to being ice-free.
MYTH: It is hard enough to predict the weather a few days in advance, so how can we have any
confidence in projections of climate a hundred years from now?
FACT: Climate and weather are different. Weather refers to temperatures, precipitation, and storms on a
given day at a particular place. Climate reflects a long-term average, sometimes over a very large area, like a
continent or even the entire Earth. Averages over large areas and periods of time are easier to estimate than the
specific characteristics of weather. Nevertheless, scenarios for global warming always recognize a large range of
uncertainty. July 1999
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