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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (22042)	8/4/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

>>it seems to me there is distribution underlying these moves. of course that's GUT feelings<< The TRIN seems to be agreeing with your gut it has climbed from .6 this morning to over .9 now showing they are selling to the dipsters. This time I am really off to work. <g> Good Luck, Lee

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (22042)	8/4/1999 2:14:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

heinz blasnik: Well my OMC just made a new low as has the NYA and COMPX....Favors is out of "favors"...<g> Regards, LG

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (22042)	8/4/1999 4:23:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

There has been distribution in place for some time now. I do not remember when I first started to see this, for I would have to review previous notes, but lets say conservatively well over one month ago when the pattern of distribution became very obvious to me. Traders like Jeff Cooper are calling it liquidation. The question back then for me was not what but when. The pattern of distribution has continued. Look further back in time at the pattern of distribution that began with the Internets. When this pattern continued of large money selling into strength, this was an alert of things to come. I wonder how many were thinking this as they stepped up to buy the dips no matter how extreme the sell offs were to become. Eventually the Internets folded stripping many of their bank accounts. Not to point to the current distribution as an example, but as far as the Internets are concerned, it is interesting to see how long it takes many traders to see the obvious. The market does provide many clues and road signs along the way if one is willing to listen. What can a market do without its leadership? And leadership cannot change like a baton at a footrace like some were thinking in the not too distant past. This is a sign of wishful thinking. Currently the semis have been showing strength. Look at where the market has gone. What I find interesting to note here is the apparent complacency of the fund manager with their continued accumulation of stocks after sell offs. I see this as a form of averaging down. This coupled with an increase in fund redemptions can lead to an interesting result. Does anyone have more specific information on this? Am I seeing this part of the picture correctly? But hey, we know all of this is idle coffee room chit chat, right? I realize some of us take it very seriously. And worthwhile market insight has been offered in the attempt by many to divine the markets. But as I have been reminded by a good trader in the markets, what really matters are the stocks that you are following and trading. I think I have a solution. I propose that we make up a selection of stocks that we follow which will provide us a good profile of the market. We then discuss the market based strictly on the price-volume action of these select group of stocks. The focus will be that of the short term trader. Naturally this profile will in part reflect where much of the action is in the market which is likely to include some of the stocks each of us are following as traders. This will also allow each trader to have something to contribute to the discussion as they talk about their "neck of the woods" in the marketplace. I think this will help to clue us into what is actually happening in the market and give us patterns to ponder and anticipate. So when something significant does actually become visible in the market, we will not be surprised, or at least not as surprised as we would be without this information. Talk will be based on what is actually happening in the market and not what we think (predict) will happen next. This I think is best left to the individual trader. We can also talk about possibilities and most importantly what to look for that would verify or invalidate the patterns we think we are seeing in the market. The focus remains on what is actually happening in the market. This is different from offering predictions. We can also look for the footprints of the fund money which is very useful information. Any takers? Just some thoughts. Bob Graham