To: Robert Everett who wrote (1268 ) 8/4/1999 5:07:00 PM From: Shafik Habal Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1434
I could be wrong :) Just sharing my thoughts, like you are. I am clueless about where this stocks truly bottoms, but I don't mind accumulating my humble position slowly when I can. I don't have the ability to purchase 10k blocks like the institutional boys, but for my position, its best for me to buy slowly and just be patient as I have been in the past. Nothing goes straight up or down (although some nets do contradict that statement). I just hope to participate when this stock comes back. No doubt, its patience that ultimately is required. I do believe a lot of the selling we are witnessing is margin (call) related. Too many people believed (and prolly still do) that the party wouldn't end. When everyone and their dog wants to buy any net stock and all these nets have mongo moves, the froth gets too heavy and the street (and the big boys) will slam them and take out their revenge. The difference next time will be that only quality companies will particpate in the rally. I remember in 1995, semis were hot. You could blindly chase a semiconductor company and make money. That was until it got so hot inthe market that MU, of all companies, became the darling of the street. MU never recovered but if you look at AMAT, TXN, etc, these companies did reward their shareholders. You won't see the ma&pa dot coms survive. If one considers MSPG a ma&pa dot com than I suggest not reading any further. With regard to your comment about the market tanking, yes that is entirely possible but lets analyze whats going on in the current sectors/subsectors. Tech is too broad a term, lets look at semis, networkers, nets, and boxmakers. Currently, semis are the leading subsector in techland while everything else is stagnating or drifting within a trading range. On a broader scale, pharmas are down (52 wk lows for most drug stocks), financials (banks, brokers) are down, retailers are down (inspite of a modest technical bounce in the long bond) and so on. If the market was truly going to tank, I would suspect that paper stocks, semiconductor companies, etc would not be breaking out while everything else sells. Particularly, since oil, semis, and paper stocks are as cyclical as they get (and i know thats arguable for the semi fans). I think its healthy for the market that we go through this. Too many dot coms were given primo valuations. I'm actually relieved to see the failures yesterday in bigstar.com and the flower company. I hope there are more failures so that the true Internet companies and our leaders of the future can be differentiated from the mundane. Perhaps I'm wrong or my logic is skewed. I'm just sharing and would welcome any thoughts. Best of luck. Regards, SH