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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (556)	8/4/1999 5:38:00 PM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 13582

Maurice: I could not help thinking the same things about Nokia. The stock was getting pummeled today - the only thing I could help to think is that they do not have an infrastructure license for CDMA. When in the world is the rest of Europe going to capitulate behind ERICY to get their hands on more CDMA licenses? Siemens, Alacatel, Nokia - WHY ARE WE WAITING!!

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (556)	8/4/1999 6:34:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

url for Telecom NZ cdmaOne news totaltele.com You need to register, which is free. Also, it's worth registering because they email you with the news items each day. -------------------------------------------------- OT Department, following on from discussion along these lines from a year and two and three ago. Included here, but suggest any discussion move to the Coming Into Buy Range thread. On the overall markets, I've been wondering for years just what happens when there is a credit collapsing market. My concern was more on the Dow because there wasn't an internut index at the time. My question was what happens when stockmarkets which have high expectations built in, together with substantial margin leverage, go into a fall. Is it soft on the outside, but hard on the inside or is it firm on the outside and gooey liquid on the inside? To use a life is like a box of chocolates analogy. By that I mean, does the collapse reach firmer or weaker positions as margin calls are made and buyers have to be tempted to buy in a free-falling market? For a while, it seems that the prices would drop, which would precipitate margin calls, which would precipitate sales, which would precipitate further margin calls, which would cause further falls in price, which would reach a crescendo when the maximum number of margin positions are reached. For example, it might be that the most margin accounts are operated at 30% margin. So, when prices have fallen to the level which causes margin calls on those people, the maximum number of shares would be on sale. There would not be a correlating increase of buyers at that level. So at that point, there could be a sudden and major acceleration in the price collapse until cash holding buyers decide the bargains are simply too good to sniff at. I wonder just where those levels are. My guess is that once the peak margin level has been crunched and those masses of stocks change hands, then things would stabilize and the core of the credit position would be firmer. So, my guess, is firm on the outside, then softening as prices drop, then a collapse at the heavily margined range, then firming again as the margined people are cleaned out. There will be a massive transfer of stock from margined people to Alan Green$pan backers [who hold cash and "Trust in Green$pan"]. Meanwhile, Alan Green$pan, to ameliorate the worst of the carnage and to avoid a general economic collapse, would drop interest rates, flood the markets with SuperDollars, cross his fingers and hope. Anyway, what's interesting is that the Internut stocks seem set to act as a test of what might happen in the broader markets. The internut index has now halved from the top of the head and if we like to believe that there are TA, herd, lemming or similar ways in which the 'investing' crowd moves, then the Head and Shoulders chart is an indicator. Anyway, common sense says that heaps of sellers who don't know a market capitalisation from a trade deficit will be holding very dodgy positions, from which they will be easily separated. bigcharts.com Watching with interest, and trepidation. Trepidation because the Dow and Nasdaq might not be far behind. Unless they get involved in a big way, Alan Green$pan is unlikely to do a rescue of the internut stocks alone. In fact, he'll be pleased because it will be a warning to those invested in other markets to take it easy on the credit addiction and ever-rising stocks. Mqurice PS: Sorry to anyone who was really quick off the mark - I put the wrong url up there at first.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (556)	8/4/1999 9:02:00 PM
From: SKIP PAUL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

likely vendor has been narrowed down to a shortlist of Lucent, Nortel and Motorola." Will Motorola be disqualified on the grounds that they have unresolved dispute with the licensor QCOM? Something, Motorola ought to be worried about!!

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (556)	8/29/1999 2:13:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Ericy/Telecom New Zealand/cdmaOne/cdma2000 Sure enough, Ericy comes scrambling in at the last minute with a cdmaOne solution to overlay the analogue network. See post 556 and the ones linked to that further upstream for this good marker in the war between cdma2000 and W-CDMA. EDGE is toast! Telecom is not doing that. They are going cdmaOne and I bet they go fast as they can. They are not waiting around for Ericy VW-40. They want the Lusk Boulevard cdmaOne now. Incidentally, Teresa Gattung is now the boss of Telecom New Zealand. Here are extracts from the article in NZ Infotech Weekly Issue No408 infotech.co.nz ----------------------------------------------------------< Ericsson New Zealand harbours hopes of winning Telecom's CDMA digital cellular tender despite not being on the shortlist announced by the company last month. The Swedish company provides the bulk of the infrastructure for Telecom's existing cellphone network and has done for the past 11 years. Managing Director Goran Olsson revealed recently that Ericsson submitted a tender to Telecom for its future generation cellular network. Ericsson proposed to continue the amps technology it currently supplies to Telecom, and use Edge bridging technology to move to third-generation wideband CDMA further down the track. Telecom however decided to go to CDMA technology immediately, and said last month it had a short-list of three CDMA tenderers - Motorola, Nortel and Lucent. Mr Olsson says Ericsson was not mentioned because it did not tender a CDMA solution - because when the request for information was issued it did not have one. [Editor: - Hahahaahaha!!! I think really they were hoping to manipulate Telecom into using EDGE and VW40 but Telecom didn't fall for it and now Ericy has had to rush in at the last minute.] Earlier this year Ericsson bought the business of American CDMA supplier Qualcomm, and it is now confident it can supply the solution Telecom wants. To this end CDMA specialists from Ericsson have been visiting New Zealand and holding discussions with Telecom. Telecom said last month that Ericsson would be supplying it with amps technology for some years to come, as dual amps and CDMA networks would be run. However, within five years Telecom expects the bulk of its customers to be on the CDMA network. Telecom is spending $100 million of its $730 million capital expenditure on its cellular network this year, and that does not include any money for the CDMA network, according to Telecom media manager Angus Barclay. Neither Tleecom nor Ericsson would say how much of the $100 million was going to Ericsson. Were Ericsson to not win the CDMA contract, it's business in New Zealand would take a hit long-term, though Mr Olsson says it will be fine in the short-term. "There's a lot of investment still to be done in the amps network just to cope with growth." Last year Ericsson reported revenue of $170 million and profits of $2.5 million. More than halfway through the 1999 financial year, Ericsson is "on track" to meet targets, and is profitable. The company has been extremely successful on the back of Telecom business, and is thought to derive up to 50 per cent of its business from Telecom. Mr Olsson believes Telecom should choose Ericsson as, he says, it would reduce risk to go with the encumbent [sic]. "We think we are in a unique position to support both amps and CDMAOne [sic]." Ericsson has about 1400 people working on CDMAOne in the United States and has about 280 people in New Zealand. It has a further 1000 staff in Australia which, says Mr Olsson, would be helpful "if Telecom realises [more sic] its intention to create a transTasman network with AAPT." Ericsson could take Telecom to a third generation solution by the end of 2001 or 2002, though that could depend a little on what happens with 2GHz spectrum auctions. Mr Olsson says it is possible to develop 3G CDMA on existing 800MHz bands but it would be helpful to have some high-end spectrum as well. Mr Olsson expects to have a dual-mode CDMA-amps phone available by early next year. The company has also supplied a fixed network switch to Telecom in Los Angeles for its transit business. Ericsson does do business with other telcos, though Mr Olsson declines to reveal details. It does, however, supply Telstra with its switches. PBXs are sold through dealers, and Ericsson is also trying to build up direct business. One product coming to New Zealand soon is Webswitch, a voice-over-IP product integrating voice and data and, well suited to small and medium businesses, Mr Olsson says. Ericsson New Zealand had several million dollars in funding from head office to develop a high speed access product for home internet users, codenamed HIS. Design work on phase two of that product continues in Napier, while the product is being manufactured by subcontractors in Australia. Orders are forecast this year for 50,000 lines. Orders for 19,000 lines have so far been taken and 10,000 have been delivered. Poland is the main market, with smaller quantities going to Southeast Asia. Ericsson New Zealand receives royalties. Mr Olsson, who arrived from Sweden in April, wants to broaden the product portfolio coming into New Zealand, and introduce more data communications and IP products. Ericsson has made a significant investment in America's Cup sponsorship, working with Telecom. ----------------------------------------------------------- So, it seems that the predictable is happening. Ericy and Qualcomm did a good thing swapping the infrastructure division. Ericy gets into the business and Qualcomm gets cdmaOne rolling faster. Qualcomm would have had difficulty getting the Telecom New Zealand business ahead of Lucent and Motorola who have significant business here already. Ericy is much more in a position to do it. This is a microcosm of NTT in Japan and Unicom in China. They both need to get cdmaOne moving and sooner rather than later. Neither can they goof around hoping for VW40 to turn to reality. They'll have to go cdmaOne as fast as they can and upgrade to cdma2000 as soon as they can to fend off the competition. ATT is in similar trouble. I bet there are loud discussions in ATT about what the hell they should do. It'll be such a laugh if they aim at W-CDMA via EDGE instead of going flat out towards cdma2000. It all adds up to a comprehensive victory for Qualcomm. My cute like QCP820 sending secret signals back to HQ! sure did a good job. Mqurice PS: It's weird, but I'm sure there wasn't a stockmarket crunch down to 8314 on 21 August. Beats me. Must be 21 September that a crunch to 8440 in the Dow is going to happen. Oil at twice the December price. Over twice! And the internut stock Head and Shoulders seems to have been followed by a dead cat bounce: bigcharts.com Look out below! Luckily it shouldn't hurt Q! much.