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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2008)	8/5/1999 7:49:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

New Zealand is interesting... but Hong Kong and Singapore are even more interesting. They are the markets where CDMA has been going head-to-head with GSM for years, after all. I'd like to hear your antipodean insights on this, Maurice - what can we learn from the situation in these two highly sophisticated markets? If we assume that IS-95 will do as well in China, Australia, Russia, India and New Zealand as it has done in Hong Kong and Singapore - would that lead to 5-10% digital market share for IS-95 in these markets as well? Or is there a specific reason why CDMAOne wouldn't flop in Shanghai if it has flopped in Hong Kong already? I don't think we can blame Beijing for hesitating if they read the same Hong Kong newspapers I do: consumers are voting with their wallets. And GSM operators are winning. Those Asian GPRS and WAP deals are highly significant - the signal operator resolve about 100 kbps data speeds and internet phones using GSM. Dollar has been falling like a rock - that must be part of Nokia's current dive. A 7% appreciation of Euro in a matter of days has to have some impact. Motorola's resurgent phone sales are probably another reason. I trust some US investment bank to start predicting Motorola's return to number one phone manufacturer one of these days. That should be worth another dollar drop in Noka. An issue I find much more relevant is the launch of new Motorola models. Their 1999 was totally front-loaded: CDMA Startac, TDMA Startac, cd920, V3688. All of the hit models date to last winter. As we near the Xmas sales frenzy these phones are actually getting competition. 7110, 3210, 8850 and their TDMA & GSM-1900 derivatives are all debuting during this fall and winter. And they are introducing stuff like predictive text input, voice-dialing, blue-light display, customized keypads & covers, metal alloy molding, seven lines of text, picture messaging and a scroll key. Plus the usual weight/performance boost. I wouldn't call this year until the last of the Christmas shopping is done - this summer isn't even a preview. Tero