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Technology Stocks : S3 (A LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Herc who wrote (13480)	8/6/1999 7:43:00 AM
From: mark doubiago	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14577

CDs can be had for .25 to .50 in bulk and store 650M. Flash is a long way from being competitive and will not replace CDs until the price per meg of storage is a lot closer. CD recorders are coming down in price all the time and more people are purchasing them. Heck, some big name PCs come with CD recorders already installed. Flash is great and is probably going to be a lot bigger in the future when prices come down a lot more. I would surely love S3 to get to 50, but it isn't going to happen this Christmas. 15 would be a more realistic target. S3 is not respected on the street and its stock price will not reflect such a high valuation. To get to such a high valuation, I believe S3 would have to buy or merge with Nvidia, 3DFX, and Creative, so that they would basically have very little competition in the graphics and sound card markets. But i don't think that is likely. If S3 could merge with either Nvidia or 3DFX, now that would be a coup worth $20 - $25 a share. I am waiting to see what happens with Nvidia, 3DFX, and Creative. I don't think that consolidation and mergers are done yet for these companies. Hopefully S3 will be included.

To: Herc who wrote (13480)	8/6/1999 9:11:00 AM
From: SBHX	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14577

Agreed, this is like William O'neil saying take your losses quickly and your profits slowly. I usually take the losses whenever the price drops 10% below my purchase price. When you buy an "expensive" stock you have to have some support level for a stop. Otherwise you can get murdered. I used 10 for SIII and am out. SNDK is even more "expensive". Actually, a closer analogy is that of storage that is something between analog film and the big floppies/removeable HD. The main strengths of flashram is the low power usage on write. Any device that runs on batteries (practically all mobile devices) and needs to write a lot of data out need the low power storage. 2nd is the high density. I think digicams are going to sell more than mp3 players/recorders. Everybody needs a home page, and putting pictures up with a CF-reader and a CF-capable digicam is so easy. albums.photopoint.com In fact mp3 has the big disadvantage that the entry point of the audio data is still the home computer. IE: where the CD-burner really wants to go in. The concept of someone storing 5-10 hours of audio while jogging is intriguing, but few people really want to jog that long, and you can pick and choose your favourite tracks from your own legit CD collection and burn your favourite CDs the same way we used to compile songs on tape to put on the walkman... 74minutes is plenty of songs. IE: few people bother to record audio outdoors, but everyone wants to take pictures, and digicams that are starting to compete against analog cameras are coming now, while video stills from DV still looks terrible. If you could plug your device on the walljack at home, then CD-Rs is by far the cheapest thing there, but if you want to take it with you, a CD-R or MO writers or microdrives consume way too much power to be practical now. Of course, new 4X improvements in battery technology over Li-ion might change this, but I haven't heard of anything like that. Even if that happens, the size of each file/picture will probably go up since #pels reqd seems like a bottomless pit right now. At some point the type III 1GB CF flash will have to be built to serve the digicams that take 4096x4096 pictures. Anyway, I suspect the SIII thread is tired of hearing me plugging SNDK, it's time to move on. Do you think flash memory will replace CD's? No movable parts, more compact. Mini discs have certainly not taken off.