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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (434)	8/6/1999 5:42:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19219

Heinz, this thread is at the top of the hot list and the market is about as oversold as last october on several measures. A 9 day RSI of 25, mcCllellan oscillator near -200 and this amount of bearishness usually is a characteristic of bottoms. that being said, i wouldn't bet too much either way. bb

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (434)	8/6/1999 5:47:00 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

wouldn't mind seeing that happen...

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (434)	8/6/1999 10:20:00 PM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Now there's an opinion we can sink our claws into <G>

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (434)	8/7/1999 2:40:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

heinz, RE the SEMI'S (SOX INDEX) today in '99 vs the semi's in '87: a little sleuthing reveals that the market gurus in first part of Aug '87 had called an end to a supposed 2 year chip slump in the semiconductor industry. The Semis were really picking up a head of steam and growth was accelerating. The big chipmakers were Intel, Motorola and Teradyne. They did not have a SOX Index in '87. Here are the 87 facts: INTC had based in the low 40's in June '87; it continued to move higher during the summer rally and closed at $53 1/2 on Aug 25, 1987, the day of the DJIA high close before the crash less than two months later. Most important is this of 87: while the DOW hit its high on AUG 25, the TRAN had already peaked two weeks earlier while the UTIL peaked much sooner in Jan of '87. The Semiconductor stocks did not peak until early OCT just two weeks before the crash on Oct 19. INTC hit a high of $62.75 on OCT 5, '87-- on OCT 19 it closed at $42. On Nov 30 it closed at $21.50 before rebasing. MOT hit its high Oct 1 at $73.25. On Oct 19 it closed at $52 5/8 and Nov 30 $40.50. TER hit its high Oct 2 at $34 5/8. On Oct 19 it closed at $21 7/8 and Nov 30 $14 7/8. My point is this: SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS WERE THE LAST "SECTOR" TO PEAK IN '87 PRIOR TO THE CRASH. AND IF ANYBODY DOESN'T THINK IT CAN GET WORSE FOR THE MARKET RIGHT NOW, WE OFTEN NEED A LITTLE REMINDER TO PUT THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE. BULL MARKETS END AT TOPS WHEN THINGS LOOK GOOD, not at bottoms when things look bad. Bull markets end WHEN 55% OF THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS INVESTED, ENAMORED, AND IN LOVE TWITH STOCKS. Bull markets end when people quit their jobs and think the game is easy and they can become resident trader and market guru overnight. I have been wrong many times before, but the evidence is more overwhelming to me now than ever. Just thought I would cheer you up with your put positions.<ggg> Best, J.T.