Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7982)	8/7/1999 12:48:00 AM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

Michael, if i may put my 2c in on some of your items. Pulte: While I haven't looked at them, I have looked at other builders, and decided their PE's are chronically depressed. It's not just "the cycle". That's what I told Paul when he was looking at them. And I believe it still holds. (You might look at any of them as being at the bottom of their trading ranges, however.) Callaway: As a golfer, I'd dispute the "premier" brand label. Adams is hitting them on the low handicap end, as well as the traditional outfits. And those Orlimar infomercials make them look terrible! Berkshire: As a long-time holder, I'm a big fan. And while I'm frustrated by the weakness in the stock price, it sure seems like a buying opportunity. Especially with the fallout in the "deferred income/growth" stocks (my term), people may start looking at things more in Warren's way, and Gillette and Coke should get their problems worked out. All offered fwiw and imho. Best, JS

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7982)	8/7/1999 1:39:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78817

Mike, my two cents too, though your picks are probably worth 4 cents. I don't know how you do it with a full time job. Waste Management I would be very careful with. I said that (maybe not here) after the first drop because their accounting is scary. I leave the job of picking bottoms in those to those who don't read financial statements - and there are plenty of them. Mike is not in that category, so this is meant as a heads up. Philip Morris and Mattel with stop losses if they break 35 and 22 seems like a high upside no downside strategy. I would just buy either and hold them, but Mike's strategy is probably better. Calloway I'm wary - I just don't see the people who bought the product two years ago (including me) even interested in improving their golf bag. The product is so good you don't need to buy another one. The market is saturated. And if I were interested in buying a golf club manufacturer (and I am because as Mike knows they are so damned cheap) I would go for Adams, which is borderline net-net and has a new product. I do not own the stock, so do your own homework. That brings me to Berkshire. I bought B Shares for 1956 late December - caught the bottom perfectly thanks to Wayne on this thread. I was up 25% in about a month and am now very close to a full round trip. I bought shares for my mother the other day at 2080 if that give you an indication of where I am on this one. Insurance stocks are way down now, and make no mistake - Berkshire is an insurance stock. Coke is below 60, Gillette is way off its highs. If you are ever going to buy Berkshire, this is the time you do it, unless you are going to be really greedy and buy it in a market crash. (I'll add then) Berkshire is a play on all the things you know its a play on (Coke, insurance...) but it also a play on a market crash. Because Buffett is holding $15 billion of cash just waiting for a chance to invest it on his terms. This is a company that will capitalize on a market crash like no other company will. For now I am not selling my portfolio, but am short Citigroup, The Globe.com and TheStreet.com. I would buy Ambac or Clayton (which I bought in my own account yesterday) at the current price regardless of my view on the market (I think Monday is going to be interesting). JJC

To: Michael Burry who wrote (7982)	8/10/1999 4:24:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

Mike: Good call on wait & watch on WMI...In regards to Jim's comments on accounting...the former SEC head on the BOD said on the CC that he's convinced after lot's of field audits in, that the accounting is basically solid. If this came from an industry vet, I'd chuckle, but I suspect this guy's solid. Like you, I'm awaiting tax loss selling to add to position. BRK...In addition to tax loss selling, rising concerns over y2k could spank Buffett's baby badly this fall. Recall the hit banks took on an analysts y2k driven downgrade. Do you know what exactly General Re reinsures? I scanned the K, but didn't come up with it. I'm specifically concerned about hurricane exposure, I vaguely recall this season expected to be uglier than usual. bob