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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (72463)	8/6/1999 7:08:00 PM
From: Bob Kim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Jeff, the numbers you were analyzing belong to Henry Blodget. Bob

To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (72463)	8/6/1999 7:13:00 PM
From: Tradegod	Respond to of 164684

>Five percent (an estimated net income margin) of $70 billion is $3.5 billion. A P/E of 40 times $3.5 billion would generate $150 billion of market capitalization? That comment is outrageous: 5% Net, after Tax? I doubt it. Based on tax rates, that would infer almost 10% pretax, after all SGA expenses. The average is optimistically more like 3%

To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (72463)	8/6/1999 7:16:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Analysts are sometimes fools, dishonest, or both. I will bet that my estimate of 5% market share of the online retailing market will be much closer to reality than Keith Benjamin's 30 - 40%. What prize will I win? nothing. And Keith Benjamin's 30 - 40% market share estimate will long be forgotten. Jeff, Your post is excellent. I also believe 5% of the market for Amazon is a very high assumption. It is so easy to chose the competition. Also, profit margins will not be 5% either. Price competition will be stronger than it is at present. Glenn

To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (72463)	8/6/1999 7:42:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I've read Blodgets statements along these lines and there is something missing in this article... he does not expect equal category penetration along all retail lines, so for example books/CDs etc. could be represented by the online retailers at 50%, other items less than 5% - he has stated that Amazon is entering those markets where opportunities are greatest therefore greater than 5% penetration of overall market is likely. I'm not defending Blodgets argument but just offering a clarification. I agree with him that toys and books/CD/Video will go majority etail. Its just a better retail experience. The weaker players will drop out and Amazon will be left according to his hypothesis. We expect, for example, that online retailing will eventually amount to about 10% of the total $2.3 trillion annual retailing market, or about $230 billion. maybe... Amazon.com has clearly indicated its intention to be involved in most aspects of this market, and in most markets, the industry leader usually ends up with 30%-40% share. What is Wal*Mart's market share of the $2.3 trillion annual retailing market (Henry Blodget's estimate)? Isn't it about 5%? So, why does Henry Blodget expect that Amazon.com's share of the online retail market is going to be greater than 5%? Henry Blodget is EXPECTING 30% PLUS????

To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (72463)	8/6/1999 9:21:00 PM
From: McNabb Brothers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Jeff, Henry Blodget just happen to be in the right place at the right time and that was when he put the $400 a share price target on AMZN and it hit it in a matter of days. Now everyone looks up to him for more predictions, when he really just made a wild ass guess to begin with. AMZN will never become the company so many are predicting it will become! It is over valued now and even if they can grow as they think they can AMZN still will be over valued in 5 years from now at he current market cap! Hank

To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (72463)	8/6/1999 10:15:00 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 164684

Jeff- Henry Blodget is really just looking for his next paycheck form his brokerage house employer. I really doubt many people believe any of that Blodget silliness you quoted in your post. Victor

To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (72463)	8/7/1999 11:53:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Hi Jeff Dryer; In addition to being wildly optimistic about: (1) The internet's future percentage of the retail market. (2) AMZN's future percentage of internet revenues. (3) AMZN's future profit margins. he is also extraordinarily optimistic about (4) AMZN's future P/E. The funny thing, is that he basically presents the bear's case of declining growth, low sales per customer etc., then by using wildly high estimates of future growth, profitability &c., he shows that the current stock price might appreciate something like 12% per year. I prefer my 12% per year investments to be in things that are less risky. All he showed was basically that there exists some flights of the imagination that would value AMZN above its current price. I look around my home/office, at the retail things I have here. Most of them were not impulse buys, but when I want something, I want it now. When I wanted a new computer, I looked through the ads, drove over to Bellevue, and bought one. The snowboard the same way. My furniture, was mostly bought at auction, where I could see it. When is AMZN going to start selling mineral specimens by mail? Big piles of books are all over, they were mostly purchased with the intention of immediately reading them. The same with the music. My groceries, I buy to consume. If I bought these things from AMZN, I would have to wait, and, in addition, I would not be so sure of getting what I want. I also would have to mail it back if it were defective, rather than going to the local store. Imagine what it will be like to get replacements for defective merchandise from an on-line giant. I suppose that AMZN will get a cut of the ice-cream business, particularly that of the trucks that drive around selling popsicles to children. What a joke. I like to try my shoes on before I buy them. The fact is that AMZN went into the businesses where it could get high market share first. All the rest of the retail experience is harder to sell to. Will people buy clothes without being able to try them on? The problem is the sight-unseen nature of the sales experience, the delayed delivery caused by the mail, and the lack of human interaction with salespeople. What is the shipping on a Monopoly set, anyway? The mass merchandising of most of things we buy retail causes the shipping to be very low. Bezos chose books because of the high value relative to size, but also because of the fact that books are very standard. Jewelry, for instance, is not, nor is clothing. The fact is that I also like to BS with the small retailers that I regularly buy things at. -- Carl