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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (12576)	8/7/1999 4:55:00 PM
From: Glenn McDougall	Respond to of 18016

Hi Pat; Not only do I understand and agree with your comments but feel the clock ticking as rates move upward. Valuations and core business make NN a very compelling story but if the market heads south due to high rates we all will be hit. Based on past history August has not been a kind month to the market however September has been more friendly, unless AG does something at the Fed that the market hates (moving rates up 50 or more basis points, talk is that 25 basis point increase is already reflected in the 30 year bond) we should be ok for September. Keep in mind that earnings from NN and the FOMC meeting fall on the same day August 24th, it will be a interesting day. Regards Glenn P.S. Your friend that you ran into may have been out of the market for a number of years as a 15 pe for a "good" stock has not been seen for quite some time. Just trying to give some balance to things :)

To: pat mudge who wrote (12576)	8/7/1999 4:55:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Pat, This morning I ran into a friend who's a consultant in the industry and his concern is with valuations. Since his experience is a lot longer than mine, he remembers when 15 was an exorbitant price to earnings. His idea of a speculative investment is Cisco or Lucent, ... 1. I suspect that for most of your friend's adult life, he's seen Interest and Inflation rates much higher than they are today. 2. He's probably also seen Revenue and Earnings growth rates much lower than that which is most probable for the companies mentioned. 3. And if he's old enough, his outlook may be obscured by the results of the depression or his parent's experience with it. While I don't own CSCO due to valuation and fear that sooner or later, LU, NT, TLAB or even NN will eat a major share of CSCO's lunch, one has to admit that anyone who's bought CSCO has done extraordinarily well relative to practically any other investment in a company with earnings. I'm still fully invested, ... Wondering what others think --- As long as "fully invested" doesn't include next month's mortgage payment, why not remain so? Seriously, in the worst case where one's sole source of income is the market, I see no reason to keep more than 3-5 years of living expenses in low risk investments. Ian.

To: pat mudge who wrote (12576)	8/7/1999 6:26:00 PM
From: Glenn McDougall	Respond to of 18016

A few more comments. A general comment according to Joe (the bull) Bataplagia from Grunthal (aka Batman) when he was on CNBC friday,he said after FMOC in August the next news should be earnings and they are expected to be good. Newbridge specific comment, Alan Lutz guided during the last CC the street down by 2 cents for the current Q. He also guided the street up by 5 cents for the full year. Thus if we meet or exceed the current Q's target the next 3 Q's should be good to great. Regards, Glenn (the bull ;-)) McDougall

To: pat mudge who wrote (12576)	8/7/1999 7:15:00 PM
From: tom pope	Respond to of 18016

>>. Since his experience is a lot longer than mine, he remembers when 15 was an exorbitant price to earnings<< Your friend must be a callow youth. It was only 17 years ago that the average p/e was 7. Valuations can expand, and they can contract. To everything there is a season. Of course, I don't practice what I seem to preach. I'm still pretty fully invested.

To: pat mudge who wrote (12576)	8/7/1999 11:44:00 PM
From: Robert Lumb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Pat: I tell you the rollercoaster ride with NN at times has been little more than I would like. But my other two main holdings CIEN and JDSU are enough to drive a person to drink. Friday alone JDSU was up US$5 then down US $2 then up US $.50 at the close. Check out the PE's on these two stocks. Oh well its only money. You can't take it with you!!! Hoping for a rally this week. Stop losses in place. Still fully invested. Now they are talking about a second rate hike any thoughts? Thanks for the words of encouragement. Regards, Rob P.S. Think I will watch Wall Street tonight - "Greed is GOOD".