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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pompsander who wrote (26624)	8/7/1999 8:56:00 PM
From: richard surckla	Respond to of 93625

pomp, I think it's because we now have to log on through GO2NET. I think they are getting lost and can't find their way.

To: pompsander who wrote (26624)	8/7/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: pompsander	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

Nothing like talking to yourself on a Saturday night. Since it appears everyone else has gone fishing with Uncle, I guess I'll opine to an audience of one. It is now, probably, six weeks until the launch of Camino. Rambus Christmas. While Uncle regularly warns us that main memory for desktops is only a fraction of Rambus' future, everyone has been waiting for this Chipset forever. Since we now all know it will in fact launch in September, the real question is what does it all mean? Where will the stock be after the great event? Will there be an elative rise or a thud of recognition that, even with the lauch, the revenue from significant sales is still six months away. While I don't know the answer, here are some thoughts. Everyone and anyone is welcome to poke lots of holes in them. Rambus Negatives (let's start with the bad news) 1. This stock has a P/E of 265. All good news is priced in already. Especially true for Camino. Therefore, if there is a little rise on the shipping news, some will sell off and wait until January or February to buy in before earnings. 2. Rambus is just an unpopular company. Sorry, it is true. Does this mean anything for the stock price? I don't know. 3. DRDRAM costs too much vis a vis PC 100 or PC 133. While cost difference will close in the future, it exists now. As some on the thread have stated, this is a disincentive in a weak hardware market, where every penny counts. (However, recent DRAM prices have steadied and risen, so maybe the gap is closing and the differential is not as important as it looked a few weeks ago.) 4. Solid test results on DRDRAM superiority are not available, hence no way to build "buzz" yet. This may change by the end of September, but has not surfaced yet. 5. Who cares about memory anyway? The world does not care if it has RDRAM or SDRAM or POMPDRAM. As Dave B. points out, it is critical to make the world care about Rambus. I don't think it is there yet, although hints like bulding a campaign around "at the speed of Rambus" are enticing. Positives For Rambus 1. Intel support and all that means in the tech world (although maybe not as much as a month ago). 2. Dell - indications that Dell intends to be first with the most is very encouraging. Other OEMS will have to match. Could propel Rambus name and concept higher faster than otherwise the case. Nothing like having powerful friends. 3. VIA - Some may consider this a negative, but I think it is a positive. Makes Intel pay attention and stay focused on its percieved role as standard creator to the world. 4. AMD - See reason three and think "speed". 5. Rambus' excellent management's method of creating reasonable expectations. No one is expecting the world in the next six months. But, any surprises are likely to be positive in nature. All good for the company and the longs. 6. Unclewest. Too many reasons to mention. 7. The American concept of technological development. If Rambus proves to be the best, it will prevail. It will not fail in the cutthroat technological environment which exists now. But it cannot stop developing and changing to stay on top.