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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jing Qian who wrote (13770)	8/8/1999 7:51:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

You have the FED's view. The FED and economists of the past held similar views and it all disappeared before their eyes. They couldn't believe it. You wouldn't believe this because you weren't alive back then and education has failed you. There was technology back then, relatively speaking just as profound as whatever you think is so significant now. You need the microprocessor and Net to keep the world's people from killing each other more than you ever needed it back then. Was it Solomon who said, "there's nothing new under the sun". One must assimilate what that means and that requires an adult maturity which doesn't look at the world through a child's eyes. That's mighty hard to find in a world of toys. If memories were long, then the possibility of failure would dramatically fall. It is necessary to have failure, delusion, dissension, destruction, so that all the evil may be thoroughly visited and experienced. It is only a matter for the lives wasted in those eras when things are falling apart. At those times your neighbor is your enemy. It is only a matter of the amplitude of these cycles. We can have gentle cycles or we can have sturm und drang. The Soviet Union created by fiat gentle cycles or no cycles and the outcome was that so much horror accumulated that the Soviet Union was destroyed. We do the same thing by trying to square the well of economic amplitude. We know Fourier transforms and we will apply them, but when you shape the amplitude total energy is conserved and so either the cycle becomes steeper and shorter or we can leave it alone and find the frequency broadens and the amplitude decreases. In the past central banks tried to slow the down side of the wave, the side in quadrant 2. The FED which has become the default world bank, has now embarked on this noble venture. It is ironic that the FED is doing what Wall Street wants yet Wall Street believes they are going to raise interest rates. They are, but not so fast as to hurt. Thus, you have the worst of all worlds. You have all your bets on technology, but technology only changes the props and scenery on the stage. The stage never changes. That means if technology can generate wealth faster, then those not getting what they perceive as their fair share are going to find a totalitarian way to take away from those who have. The generation of wealth always goes to a few first since they took the risks to create it. It doesn't matter what is the rate of wealth creation through technology, but you'll find that technology only increases human desire for wealth so that humans work harder. You also think other societies can't rapidly develop, but it is the technology which is enabling just that. These "primitive" societies are not bogged down with all those great technologies of the past. They have a clean slate and so they can do it right. Example: pull Pure from the get-go. Example: install wireless with SR as is being done in Portugal. Example: use what the West has discovered about construction to avoid all the pitfalls of finding it out on your own. I submit that the accumulation of knowledge accelerates the rate at which societies can come to be standard of living equal and this has been proved to be the case in many countries. It is this rapid modernization that literally caused the Asian Crisis. All over the world you see rapid modernization. That has to make the demand for raw commodities increase rather dramatically. With capacity being shut in as a result of the true years of prosperity, you can expect an interesting increase in prices of commodities. The companies producing them are not going to increase their ability to supply. They have too many bad memories and so they will sit on the rising demand. If the price of money were allowed to rise as the free market has been doing with some forms of money like the money loaned to government, these interesting price states could not be visited. Central banks aren't going to do that. It might hurt some mythical person who the universities and bleeding hearts have invented.