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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (38711)	8/9/1999 8:52:00 PM
From: Richard Mazzarella	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116770

George, <<Why not gold stocks>> There's money out there with no place to go, the stock market's currently spooky and interest rates are rising. Maybe gold's a ?new idea? under the current circumstances? Gold's oversold, but I don't think this is the turnaround we are looking for, we may have one more run in the stock market to go IMO.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (38711)	8/9/1999 11:32:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116770

The Games Bankers Play: online.hkstandard.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (38711)	8/10/1999 8:55:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116770

Effect of Y2K on oil trade feared FEARS about the millennium bug could destabilise global commodity markets in coming months, disrupting shipments of grains and leading to supply-demand gaps and price hikes for crude oil. The warning comes in the latest World Bank Global Commodities Report, released on Friday in Washington. "Concerns over the potential disruptions associated with Y2K may cause consumers, processors and distributors to stockpile crude oil and products," the World Bank says. It adds that this could lead to price pressures as key northern hemisphere economies enter the winter season of peak demand for energy. theaustralian.com.au

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (38711)	8/13/1999 4:30:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116770

Corrective or Bear Market Rally: Wave Signals Newsletter By Mike Drakulich 8-13-99 THE "THEME" CONTINUES The "theme" I have forecast of major sea changes in Stocks, the Dollar, and commodities continues to be reinforced by the market action of recent weeks. The large declines in both the U.S. dollar and Stock markets are very likely only the first "leg" down of what are likely to be significant corrections or full fledged BEAR Markets. Subscribers to my Email newsletter took excellent profits from dollar and stock market short positions in the past week, and with todays large rallies we are already beginning to reposition ourselves back on the short side. Elliott wave patterns are very negative here, and once this corrective rally completes, I believe the next "wave" down will be much more vicious to the downside. As always we only deal in risk/reward and probability, but in my opinion shorting this dollar and stock market rally is about as good as risk/reward gets. The "commodity" theme of a major long term low having been made in the CRB continues to be reinforced by a powerful move off the July lows in the CRB index, already hitting 7 month highs. Subscribers are also well positioned in quality gold stocks, accumulated on weakness throughout the July decline. Gold looks to have made a major low as well, and the prognosis for gold and the gold stocks looks very attractive here as well. I expect the rest of 1999 to be the most volatile time frame since the Fall of 1987. Volatility, of course increases risk, but also increases opportunity as well. The next several months should be interesting indeed. STOCK MARKET Things change quickly when "numbers" come out. It's obvious now that the corrective rally process was not completed at yesterdays highs, and that we are likely to see the S&P 500 cash index rally back towards the 38% retracement level at 1325.95, perhaps higher. The Dow remains much stronger here as it has already easily exceeded the 38% retracement at 10,817, and already this morning reached the 50% retracement which came is at the 10,900 level. We might watch the Dow .618 retracement level at 10,983 for a possible corrective rally top, that might coincide with the S&P hitting the .382 retracement at 1326 in the S&P 500 cash index. What I can't believe is how fast the 10-day Trin(Trading Index) moving average is going to get overbought, today we are dropping off a 1.81 reading, so a closing reading of .60 would place the 10-day at a very overbought .85, and put the 5-day at an even more overbought .71. This rally of course is relieving a deeply oversold condition developed on the recent decline. What did occur with the horrible advance/decline statistics we saw was that the McClellan Oscillator did hit negative "breadth" or "momentum" thrust benchmark levels. Historically when these levels have been reached within 3 weeks of all time highs, it has, percentage wise, forecast much lower prices in the following weeks and months. Remember, no historical indicator can be used alone nor is always right, it is just when combined with Ewave patterns and other technical indicators I use, that it presents in my opinion a rather overwhelming case for lower prices in the stock market, perhaps easily as much as a 20-30% decline in the major averages. That is my current view on things, and I always attempt to stay open and flexible based upon new evidence from the markets. However, in my view the odds are about as good as they get that a major top has been made, and the decline has a lot lower to go. Good luck in the wild weeks ahead. decisionpoint.com