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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (7994)	8/11/1999 10:16:00 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 78821

WMI: <<But considering the state of the balance sheet, I didn't see anything close to a margin of safety>> Are you referring to netting out intangibles leaving -1.5 $B in net equity? The real value of the assets is going to ride on real earnings they generate going forward. My contention is that we're getting pretty close to the real scoop on this and 10x those earnings isn't bad for what many analysts have praised as top drawer assets. The bear case on earnings is that the industry guys have flim-flammed the former SEC guy and the accounting still sucks. The further bear case on the stock is tax loss selling. I doubt the former bear, but suspect the tax-loss selling will bring lower prices.

To: James Clarke who wrote (7994)	8/11/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78821

would buy MCK at 31, and I would certainly buy it after the drop today. Would you? Are you? I'm thinking right now it is maybe fairly valued. The business economics are not that good. With Medicare getting involved in drugs, well that's an argument against anything to do with drugs, including the pharmas. MCK is the dominant player. No doubt. But the business is not really that great a business. Is HBO a good business? Who knows, really. There's a lot risk here still. You're still talking about razor thin margins, and it is going to be in the gov't's interest to erase them. MCK gets to be a value stock when it looks like Ingram or Tech Data did at their bottoms. Too many people like it and the tax selling hasn't even started. The market looks like it's going to leg down something nasty. I ain't touching any of the fallen angels yet. In fact, now I upped my cash again yesterday and am not anxious about putting it back in again anywhere right now. Looking forward to the fall. About that Miller. Well, he's taken big positions in some fallen angels lately, only to see them crumple. Does anyone have insight into his strategy. Is it just buy the biggest fallen angels? Jim, I know you can't comment, but this is for the thread. How have your shorts done? Meanwhile, I almost pulled the trigger when Callaway hit its old lows (way too cheap given its balance sheet and dividend and dominating position) and now it bounces 15%. I'll wait again... Champion continues to spiral. Clayton still bouncing along old lows. Score one more for James. Something grabbed hold of Analysts International today. Apple and YUM too. Happy days are here again. ;) Mike