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To: Crystal ball who wrote (29089)	8/11/1999 4:04:00 AM
From: DOUG H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Crystal, Don't you think we oughta see the #'s before we decide what Greenjeans is gonna do? If P.P.I. and C.P.I. say inflation, well, the cards on that have been dealt. Thats why there will not be an increase on the August 24th FOMC meeting, but they will try to scare the hell out of the market from now until then. For now the market correction is over, but 2 to 3 days before August 24th one needs to be caureful, after August 24th its up just like after the October 1998 correction from the aftermath of the Greenspan induced Asian Contagion bail outs witht he IMF and the ASian banks. So for now, happy trails to you....good trading days ahead. I am, Truly yours, -Crystal ball P.S. If Greenspan does psuh for an increase, his automatic renomination to the Federal Reserve will not only be on hold, his position will end and a better suited candidate will follow...no one wants to have annoited the one guy who can skew the next election!!!

To: Crystal ball who wrote (29089)	8/11/1999 8:45:00 AM
From: Rascal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Maybe a hedge fund is unwinding? Any comments?

To: Crystal ball who wrote (29089)	8/11/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: Ken	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

>> "the correction is over at least until August 24th" I respectfully disagree. I believe the market will not move much in either direction until the Fed makes an announcement on the 24th. It seems guaranteed that they will raise rates (probably 1/4 pt.) If they do raise 1/4 point, the market will go up after the 24th. If they don't raise 1/4 point, Greenspan will have to offer some pretty good explanations to offset his recent hawkish tone. Then the market will go up. :) However, I also believe fools will sell their portfolios for fear of some Y2K disaster which will never come. If they do, Uncle Sam will be very happy next April 15, as the fools will have to pay all those capital gains. I am looking forward to a shaky fall, worse winter, and fantastic 2000.

To: Crystal ball who wrote (29089)	8/11/1999 12:22:00 PM
From: Bridge Player	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 41369

<< and if Greenspan inflating the Fed rate 5-5.5% to another 25 to 50 points doesn't just push the US 30 year treasury over 7%, and cause STOCKS DOWN >> Crystal, you don't understand the psychology of the bond market. The best thing that Greenspan could do is raise fed funds a full .5% rather than the .25 that everyone is talking about, retain a neutral bias, and accompany the move with some reassuring words about this being a preemptive strike etc. The market would stop worrying about a 3rd rise later this year, the 30-year bond would go back to about 6.0% yield within days from around 6.25 currently, and the stock market would have a very nice rally. The bond market has already priced in at least 1/4 and probably a full 1/2 already. In effect, it has already done much of Greenspan's work for him by letting a little air out of the bubble. The worst thing the Fed could do is leave rates unchanged at the August meeting, thus causing worry in the financial markets that they were not sincere about forestalling inflation. BP