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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (49236)	8/11/1999 8:35:00 PM
From: JoeDi1213	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Dog - I agree with your Boom 2000 thesis but this is Aug. 1999. Although I'm a new kid on the block I'm been around oil for awhile. According to bridge news there were as of Monday afternoon over 30 upgrades in the OSX sector and I'll bet I've seen at least 10 more in the last two days. I think we are setting ourselves up for an OSX heartbreak for some and a buying opportunity for others. Do you really want to put a new position when all the tech. indicators are on the roof? I understand that stocks can stay overbrought for extended periods of time but I'll be really surprised if this is one of them. All those upgrades and not one upward earnings revision? Something is not smelling right to me. To me last winter was a gift in this sector, can you say DO is a gift at 40 or SII at 50? I belive some hot money rotated into this sector and out of tech stocks, reminding me of April when it happen to the large cap cyclicals who really have gone nowhere since. From my understanding large deepwater projects involve two or more parties due to the huge costs involved and I know some who are balking because they don't believe the price of oil will hold. Unleaded right now is leading the complex and any major weakness there will cause oil to quickly retreat. We have good support at 2010 which we must have tested 5 times last week but if that gives way there is a huge gap at 18.60 to fill. I belive we are in a little blow off here that will end in a 10% to 20% correction in the near term which will then bring us to Boom 2000. Almost forgot if this is a stock market bubble and bubbles do what bubbles do you can through oil demand out the window along with outrageous valuations. Also wouldn't be suprised to see weakness going into the Sept OPEC meeting. Thanks for your time

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (49236)	8/11/1999 10:04:00 PM
From: Brad Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Doug, are you hearing of tubing shortages? It would be remarkable if we started to get shortages in the very beginning of an oil patch recovery. Aren't industry downturns(depressions)usually associated with large amounts of excess capacity, both on the services side as well production?