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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (22766)	8/12/1999 2:37:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Missed your chat again but wanted to tell you again that you are amazing. I couldn't see it until tonight but my indicators are now showing this rally if it lasts, will top around the 20th. You picked this date 2 days ago. I have to get me one of them there guitars <ggg> As for this rally. It looks good on some of the indexes and a few stocks but it is far from clear at this point. A lot of stocks stalled at their 200 DMAs and many more reversed back down failing to hold on to their early gains. Stocks like CMGI, MSFT etc were not impressive although many of the generals were leading as evidenced by the OEX out performing the SPX for most of the day. The few times I did get to peek at the market, the OEX was up 4 while the SPX was only up 5-6. During the morning retraces, the SPX almost went flat while the OEX never dipped more than being up 2 1/2. This was the first sign that the leaders were trying to hold things together. Since I could not babysit any positions, I missed the move since the last time I looked the TYX was still moving upwards and the TRIN was still rising also. The indexes were forming a bullish flag but the bearish signs I mentioned kept me from going long while blind. I mention this because I still feel this market should not be trusted yet unless you are trading full time and can watch your positions. I am biased long short term but feel that until a few things improve like the transports, buying long and going off to work without the ability to know what is happening is not a good idea. Many stocks were strong today that were on my watch list and I wish I had played them in hind sight but if today had ended down, I would have been kicking myself for knowing better than to risk it. Futures are slightly up but it will take a bit more to keep from selling off on the open. Still the last few days they have been buying at 8:30 to get the buy programs going so I expect the same tomorrow. Besides, the Fed has started pumping in the liquidity again the last few nights showing that they will try to soften this landing as they have in the past. I am biased short term long but my indicators are not committed enough yet to say we couldn't roll over back down at any time. It will take a day or two more of upside moves to get them fully short term long. I still feel the medium term trend is down however. I was unimpressed with transports but financials did nicely today as did retail once again. I had numerous other sector indexes forming bullish patterns but the failures that did stick around were fairly important. Friday's PPI will be critical. An inline report within expectations could continue this rally, but a negative surprise could make for an ugly weekend. There can only be so many more short lived bounces before even the most gullable bull gives up buying the dip and decides to wait for a real bottom. If all the buyers leave, it won't matter if there is initially panic selling, that will come when they realize there are no buyers left. Gersh, my buy number is close to yours but my sell number came out to minus 98, not the positive 100+ you had. I can't find where I messed up. Probably won't matter but thought I would let you know. We are usually with in a few points of each other until today. EDIT - Good article exchange2000.com Good Luck, Lee