Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jing Qian who wrote (14276)	8/12/1999 11:27:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

I'd guess the rate in the Bay Area is 10k/month. 100k/mo is too high and 1k is too low. 100 installers can do 100 installs per month based on 3 per day. Thus 10k/mo. Apparently that's all that can be done since the cost to create the marginal installer is prohibitive. I'd say demand is 20k/mo. based on a 1 month delivery delay. I'd guess the potential market breadth is 10% of the populace in 5 years. That's 1 million in the Bay Area. You can see that demand is going to outstrip supply for the next 5 years and it will take 8 years to achieve significant penetration. That does extrapolate to about 20 million subs in the US and 50 million worldwide over 5 to 8 years. How can one be happy or unhappy with that growth? What is the growth rate? Not meaningful to compute. How much earnings comes from 20 million subs? 20M x 12 x 40 x .35 x .5/.4 = $4000M, $13.00/shr US and $30.00/shr total.