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To: ahhaha who wrote (14324)	8/12/1999 11:37:00 PM
From: Jing Qian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Ahhaha, So 10% penetration and $13/shr earnings by 2005? That's more than good enough. For your info, TJ is more optimistic than you are, he projects 25% penetration by 2005. 20 million of ATHM is more powerful than 20 million of AOL because subscribers to ATHM rarely churn. Maybe the only risk we have now is AT&T?

To: ahhaha who wrote (14324)	8/12/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: Jing Qian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

20M x 12 x 40 x .35 x .5/.4 = $4000M, $13.00/shr US and $30.00/shr total. You forgot to factor in all the e-commerce related income, advertising income, and who knows what killer apps will bring in. So the actual earnings will be much more than $13/shr.

To: ahhaha who wrote (14324)	8/13/1999 2:35:00 AM
From: E. Davies	Respond to of 29970

How much earnings comes from 20 million subs? 20M x 12 x 40 x .35 x .5/.4 = $4000M I realize you later said this calculation was nonsense (I agree), but it would be interesting to at least take a wild guess. We certainly would come closer than any analyst would. Whats the .5/.4? Are these not revenues instead of earnings? Dont you have that minor detail of expenses? You are also calculating the total subs available, not @home subs. @home only has on the order of 75 million homes passed right now. Thats a very long way from 50 million customers at 10% penetration. Sad to say I dont think @home has a shot at 30 million outside the US in anywhere near 5 years. So far @home serves the Nederlands, and parts of Japan and Australia. I dont have the numbers but I'm pretty sure its way less than 5 million homes total. There is a very long way to go to convince Europe and Asia to use @home. This is why @home needs other revenue beyond subscriptions. How much it will be is the big unknown. Eric