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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jing Qian who wrote (14401)	8/13/1999 5:15:00 PM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Probably nothing will happen. If nothing happens we will get exactly what you predicted- complete stagnation (at best) in the stock price. Until fall of last year ATHM did not really move as a "net" stock. Looks like we have moved from being a "net" stock to being an "out of favor" stock. When we go "in favor" again the rise will be impressive. It could be days, it could be years. Eric

To: Jing Qian who wrote (14401)	8/13/1999 11:29:00 PM
From: MIKE REDDERT	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Let me address the issue of share price: 1) Leo Hindrey is not a problem. While the "Street" does not like the internal bickering between Hindrey and Jermoluk, it is, so far, underestimating the positive impact that the T/ATHM contract has for "Excite". "Excite" has, in the past, played second fiddle to YHOO and AOL simply because YHOO/AOL was "first on the scene". Jermoluks insistence and the contractual legal club gives ATHM a couple years to catch up with its bigger brethren. Of course, AOL doesn't like the fact that it might not "hold all of the cards" and it's using somewhat sinister tactics (citizen action groups) to fight it... along with "crying foul" to the FCC. The fact that the "Street" did not "sniff out" the ATHM advantage is a testament to why markets are, at times, inefficient... after all, one company's loss is another's gain. 2) My bet is that the T/ATHM disagreement is a non-issue... Armstrong is a smart man, and he is pulling political strings that will, in the end, benefit both companys. In a very real sense he has no choice, because any agreement would have to "pass muster" with ATHM... but beyond that, he must realize that his company has a great deal of control over the "Excite" portal, as it stands now. Prostituting his network to other portals causes his company to lose control of content, or ties it up in legal wrangling to insure that T has a presence in the decision making. T is far better off with the devil it knows and controls, than the one that it doesn't. 3) Concerning the "open access" issue, it can be summarized as follows: AOL aka "Citizens Action Groups" cry foul... FCC says," No! " AOL petitions FCC for inquiry... FCC says, " No! " Municipalities vote for "open access"... FCC says, " No! " The next step, of course, will be a court challenge, if AOL wants to be embarrassed by a public revealing of its tactics. In these cases, that of "public domain", the courts usually side with the government. If you doubt that, let me take you back to the years when the IRS won virtually all cases, either in the tax courts, or on appeal. Additionally, the FCC has a good case... really. 3) Net stocks are down... ATHM follows. Now is the time to buy E-Commerce stocks for the "back to school"/Christmas season. Once the Street unloads the excess baggage that it has placed on ATHM, ATHM will follow the group, probably exaggerated to the upside Bottom line... ATHM is a great buy here... I bought 1/3 position a couple days ago, and added another 1/3 today. I'll add on any further weakness. I expect at least a double into January. Mike