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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edwin S. Fujinaka who wrote (1308)	8/14/1999 4:32:00 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

Some stocks are volatile because they are selling at high p/e s and the market is alternatively lured by the growth and repelled by the price. Other stocks are volatile because some of the value does not appear in the earnings so these invisible (to an accountant) asset increases are alternatively noted and ignored. Suppose we develop a new product, spending some millions of dollars. The product is ready to ship on the first day of the next fiscal year. The conventional accountant says only that we lost the millions of dollars this year. The same is true if we spent those millions on incubating fledgling companies. I expect that Softbank will be volatile for both of the above reasons. Companies like CMGI, BRKA and Softbank will always be hard to evaluate. The P/E on current earnings may not correctly convey the entire situation. I wonder if anybody can consistently have good timing in such cases. I doubt it. In other words timing will be one of the "weak points" for everybody. JMHO. In making an investment we should always have a conclusion about the long term future of the company and about the reasonableness of the current price range. As for the latter point, we have 20,000 yen as the approximate figure for the underlying share values of the listed companies owned by Softbank. So it looks like 20,000 to 40,000 is a fair value range. That doesn't answer anybody's question.:-) Let's face it, timing, i.e. pricing is a guessing game. I held a Norwegian stock once for 7 years without making any money on it. I dumped it and you can guess the rest. It then skyrocketed. We diversify because we're uncertain, eh?

To: Edwin S. Fujinaka who wrote (1308)	8/14/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

Hello Edwin-san, It's a lazy day and I feel talkative (even more so than usual). I have not hesitated up to now to get back in at a higher price. Its like dancing, once in tune, (mixing metaphor) wade in, and like swimming, if the water is warm, swim away; again mixing metaphor (sailing), if the ship is sinking, don't pray, jump off. Hesitation is death. Once I have established a position that drops like a rock immediately, an example is Cendant, by 50% ... my boat has left the harbour, and I never worry about how to get back to the same harbour. The job then becomes trying to spot a better harbour to get into ... Asia Pulp and Paper (PAP) had dropped 80%+, so, sell CD and buy PAP, issue Puts and Calls. Wait. My 50% rapid loss position in Thailand was converted to HK Red Chip (mainland China shares listed in HK) shares when the HK red chip market dropped 80%+ (while Thailand stayed put at 50% loss, as two markets are not linked during that particular event), rode HK red chips up in 60 days on the bounce, as it is a better asset class in a more liquid market than Thailand, recover 100%+ on bounce. Out of Red Chips, buy Bangkok Bank, Thai Farmers and Land&Houses back at additional 50-80% decline from previous selling price, rode up for eventually for 400% return. Sold off Thailand several weeks ago when I told you I did, and now buying into Yahoo!. Trading (not day trading) is like a video game (Super Mario Brothers) in that we switch logs in the middle of fast moving river to get to the other side. Or like Quake, lob in a bunch of grenades into the dark chamber (establish position) and than move in and keep moving - the guy standing still will end up hurt. Keep looking for bigger logs and thinly occupied but brightly lit chambers. Not watching other national markets (ADRs) and other asset classes, I would miss opportunities for gain/recovery. Obvious, this definitely becomes highly frictional (heat loss) and not "do-able" in a 28-40% capital gains tax environment. One of the advantages of mutual funds is that they do not have the same constraints as regular folks, and secondly, they keep having new money flowing in. but chatting about mutual funds on SI is not fun.