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Strategies & Market Trends : Bowling Alleys and Tornadoes: G&K Hunting Grounds -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (91)	8/15/1999 2:42:00 PM
From: Tom Ardnij	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 153

Chaz2, I have been invested in SUNW over the last 1-1/2 years on a premise that it is a locus of consolidation for various Unix markets. I came to believe that Sun Microsystems would benefit as other Unix machine manufacturers started to emphasize Win NT servers also. Hewlett Packard was de-emphasizing Unix in favor of Win NT. This also was occurring at Silicon Graphics and to a lesser degree IBM. I felt that the beneficiary was going to be SUNW. My thought at the time was that the anything but MSFT crowd would focus on the sole remaining pure Unix company. I still believe that in this arena, SUNW is a king. The effect has been especially felt in server wins and to a lesser degree in storage as you have indicated. Additionally, I believe there is a potential for gorillahood depending on what occurs with JAVA over the long run. All this of course IMO. Best Regards, Tom

To: gdichaz who wrote (91)	8/15/1999 6:07:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 153

Chaz2, Could GE, IBM or SUNW be considered a gorilla or king in one of its fields and just a simple leader or #2 in others? Yes, the behemoths certainly are gorillas in certain fields, maybe kings in others, etc., etc. IBM is certainly the gorilla of mainframe computers and Oracle is agreed by most to be the gorilla of database software. Possibly GE is a gorilla or king in one of their many markets. As investors, I think the real appeal of a king or gorilla is found in companies that are independently focused on a particular market. That gives the investor the biggest bang for his/her buck. As an example, let's assume IBM somehow becomes the gorilla of front office software. Because it will represent a relatively small portion of IBM's total business the investor won't enjoy the same impact as if Siebel or some other independent provider is crowned. As another example, GE might be the best managed company in the world and certainly has had stellar growth in its earnings and stock price, but do any of us following this thread really believe GE's earnings or stock price will progress as rapidly as Qualcomm's over the next ten years? Possibly, but highly doubtful. For others not aware of the definitions, dDon't forget that a king holds twice the market share of the next largest competitor. Being #1 doesn't make a company a king. --Mike Buckley