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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad2 who wrote (776)	8/17/1999 12:18:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5582

Mad2, Good points. GumTech provided some guidance at the shareholder's meeting and they are as open as they can be if you call them. I have gathered from conversations with management that they expect 35,000 to 50,000 stores to carry Zicam this cold season. This estimate was also provided on a recent conference call with analysts. They estimate that initial sales will be on the order of 500,000 units to fill the channel. This translates to sales of about $3.5 million. Understandably, they haven't provided any guidance beyond channel filling because even they don't know how well Zicam will be accepted and they are being conservative with their guidance. They do have a good idea which retailers will stock Zicam this cold season, however, and this is the basis for their estimates of channel filling. The bottom line is that Zicam works, and with the right marketing and PR from publication in a medical journal (if it occurs), sales of Zicam in Q3 and Q4 should be several million dollars. Quigley sold $70 million of Cold-Eeze after it was published in JAMA, and I see no reason why Zicam, which is more effective than Cold-Eeze, can't approach that sales figure next year.