To: Craig A who wrote (139401 ) 8/17/1999 10:23:00 AM From: grok Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
RE: <Well.CNNFN just said HWP down 5 after blowout earnings. Now what happens to us if DELL's numbers are just good? Briefing.com, Spear Report, Bull Market report still liking DELL. Comments from anyone appreciated.> Jeff Berkowitz of TheStreet.com says that HP had a big run up before earnings and that the earning weren't as good as they looked. ---------------------------------------- Why Berko's Holding Off on Hewlett-Packard By Jeff Berkowitz 8/17/99 8:11 AM ET I'm just waiting for Cramer to call in. "How much HWP do we own?" an excited Cramer will ask. "Sounds like a great quarter." I fully expect the line to go silent for a few seconds as he digests my response: none. I sold my common and most of my 110 calls yesterday (too many bad Hewlett-Packard (HWP:NYSE) conference calls) and slammed the remnants last night on Instinet: "Just not good enough, don't know what results the Times and Journal reporters were looking at." (Before we go any further, let me add that I am not a zealous anti-dead tree prophet like my partner. I just analyze earnings reports for a living.) At this point Jim, whose only info on Hewlett-Packard would have been provided by the newspapers, will understand. "Ran up too much in front," he will add. Yep, that's exactly it. The quarter was good, not great. Solid, yet not outstanding. Take out the interest income, seen as a one-timer, and the company beats estimates by a penny, not a nickel. Revenue in line with to slightly below expectations; that's certainly not good enough after the big run in the stock. Here's the kicker: Due to the pending offering of the Test & Measurement business named Agilent (wow, that rivals Cendant (CD:NYSE) and Venator (Z:NYSE) for dumb names), management declined to specify orders. When pressed hard by analysts, looking for the security blanket that the order number provides for future prospects, management responded that orders were greater than sales. Sounds good, huh? Wait a second. The Street wanted 16% order growth; doesn't that answer imply something less? Definitely not good enough. Sure, to those not as myopic as we quick-triggered traders, it was a fine quarter. PCs and printers were very good; gross margins showed upside vs. expectations and they beat the numbers. Bulls would argue that that you should add back $100 million. Smells like rationalization. Nice, swell, sweet, pretty, lovely ... call it what you want, the quarter was just not good enough for me. Disaster? Nah. Let's just revisit the stock at lower levels.