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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (38265)	8/19/1999 11:35:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 152472

Jon, if you like "numbers games", here is a copy of a post I just made about Q's earnings and stock price on the G&K thread. Can you help me identify the basis of some our assumptions on Q's fy'00 earnings? Well, last's quarters "pro forma" was 86, and that was up 45% from the previous quarter. We expect a gorilla to grow at 50% a year at least, and it could do 100%. Lets start with top end, a continuation of 45% per quarter. That gives us 86 times 145%= 1.25 next quarter, then 1.81, then 2.62, then 380, for a total of 9.48. 1/2 of that, 22.5% growth per quarter, gives us 86 times 122.5%= 1.05 next quarter, then 1.29, then 1.58, then 1.93, for a total of 5.85. SI is showing a trailing PE of 147.4, and a market cap of 26.3 billion. If that continued, that would give us, a year from now, a stock price, On 9.48 earnings, 147.4 PE times 9.48 earnings = 1397.35 price, with a market cap of 218 Billion. On 5.85 earnings, 147.4PE times 5.85 earnings = 862.29price, with a market cap of 134.5 Billion If the trailing PE slowed down to say, the Cisco level of around 80, that would give us, a year from now, a stock price, On 9.48 earnings, 80PE times 9.48 earnings = 758 price, with a market cap of 118.27 Billion. On 5.85 earnings, 80PE times 5.85 earnings = 468 price, with a market cap of 73 Billion. I did this exercise to show my figures in case of error, and to give anybody who does not know how to do this exercise, a layout of it. My guess on this? The bottom number, a 468 price a year from now.