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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SpudFarmer who wrote (38274)	8/19/1999 1:21:00 PM
From: RoseCampion	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

OT OT OT - VISX, et al. Although not related, another company which relies on patents and royalty stream is VISX. Some are using laser sales to predict the future of the stock. The company gets a royalty from every procedure for eye correction. That to me is the real money maker. Not so fast, Good Sir Spud. <g> I know a bit about that market. VISX shares a per-procedure royalty ($500, IIRC) from the use of its lasers with another large laser manufacturer, Summit (BEAM) - they agreed to some sort of royalty-sharing agreement years ago (the infamous "Pillar Point" fee, right?). Unless I'm greviously mistaken, they don't get _any_ royalties from the user of other lasers, like Baush&Lomb/Chiron's Technolas series, which is a much better seller in Canada and overseas than the VISX or Summit products. What's more interesting is that there are a whole host of discontinuous technological revolutions that have already appeared or are coming soon to the vision correction market (which I agree is huge). These include the already FDA-approved and marketed Intacs (Keravision, KERA) product, implantable contact lenses, and corneoplasty (corneal molding) procedures. All of these have the potential (though by no means is it guaranteed) to be cheaper, safer, easier and more predictable than the current PRK/LASIK procedures that VISX lasers are used for. Time will tell on this point. It's an interesting (and instructive) comparison to Q...IMHO, VISX's position in their market - and their future potential - is nothing like QCOM's position in wireless. In "Gorilla Game" terms, they're at most a King with a host of strong princes - nowhere near a gorilla with guaranteed royalties and a lock on a nascent 'standard'. And although any serious new-technology competition (discontinous revolution, if that's the proper phrase) to a CDMA wireless standard is years away at best, for VISX and PRK/LASIK procedures it's already here (Keravision in a sense 'crossed the chasm' with FDA approval earlier this year). The new contenders are already beginning to take their market share away. More importantly, the barriers to entry, and the cost for customers/users to adopt to a new 'standard', are much, much lower in this market than in wireless. Future discussion of this whole topic should probably be moved to the G&K thread...sorry to be long-winded. (BTW, the internecine battles between laser companies and their various partisan bands in the last two years make the QCOM-Ericcson CDMA/GSM standoff look like a respectful gentlemanly disagreement.) -Rose-

To: SpudFarmer who wrote (38274)	8/19/1999 1:29:00 PM
From: Jeff Vayda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

OT** SpudF: re relies on patents and royalty stream is VISX... Another Q? A better case would be made from Keravision. Good parallels in the Qualcomm/Visx scenarios. Kera is the new guy with a completely new approach (as was Qualcomm) derived at from another related technology. (Kera basically is a spacer inserted in the eye to reshape it, rather than a laser removal of tissue as in Visx) Kera is the sole supplier of the inserts while a couple of people are producing the lasers. As the world also comes to see the advantages of CDMA over GSM, they will also see the advantages of KERA over Lasik (mildly invasive, better results and removable). However, in the mean time, people with significant money invested in the outdated infrastructure (GSM and Lasik) will continue fight against the flow. The future is bright (clear?) but it wont necessarily be a smooth ride. Jeff Vayda Post post edit: seems you hit the Bullseye with your post Spud. Does anyone else see a pattern of like minds following similar 'story' stocks> (Qual/Visx/Kera)