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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve in socal who wrote (8253)	8/19/1999 7:27:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

steve, falling knife. I thought I was ok because Bank Boston Robertson Stevens report came out about 2 weeks ago when NITE was $37 and said BUY. They are pretty well plugged into the company so I figured the worst was over. WRONG. I've learned through the years that when buying falling knives, you either buy the depths of the first drop, or you wait until the first bounce fails. This feels like that first bounce failing, so we have to wait and see if the depth of this drop is more serious than last time before wading in with both feet. The 200 share stake I took at $36 won't kill me as this stock could jump $6 points on any good day in the market, but I should have not been blinded by the nice bounce that it took off the first bottom. I just need a bit more discipline. Pulled the same mistake on GNSS about a month ago. Luckily for me I select very high growth stocks with very good prospects, so if I don't get the exact bottom at least I capture the middle 60% of any rise. My largest gain in myhistory of trading was Citigroup. I missed the bottom by 25% on that one, but am still up 25% per year for last 9 years. Timing isn't everything. What I would suggest is this level might make a great entry point for AIM and I say this with all sincerity. 1) NITE has almost a franchise position in ECN's which are going to become more and more important to online trading. 2) NITE has advantage of first mover in this area. Other newcomers will have to take share away from them and Schwab's division. 3) NITE has real earnings that are growing far above the 10-15% of most S&P stocks so time will bail you out of dumb initial trade. 4) NITE has sufficient volatility to give any good AIM'er plenty of buying and selling action. 5) I think that based on eps growth and projected eps, the stock is cheap up to at least $35/share even with the revised downwards eps and slight downward revision of eps growth rate. For myself I'm going to have patience and make sure the second bounce doesn't fail. Option expiration may be playing a part here also. Maximum pain is to close the stock tomorrow at $30, so after that and Mr.G's announcement on Tuesday I suspect the stock will move in the direction it will go without outside influences. Take a quick peek at CCRD and VNWK trading this week and see if you could have picked the bottom. I did ok, on CCRD the other day at $33 5/8 (+2k so far), but missed VNWK at below $30. Can't catch every falling knife. ---- Dave