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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (13844)	8/19/1999 8:04:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 27311

Also, let us not forget that VLNC is not completely immune to the general market direction, which is currently obscure, to say the least. Where I'm headed with this is ... to evaluate this moment as a buy point I balance estimated upside and downside over several future windows based on alternative fundamental events ... the compelling picture for me is the 4 week window, within which I see it equally likely that VLNC goes up or down from here. Stock price aside (as it should rightly be in the eyes of VLNC management), I don't see any compelling business reason to press for or announce PO's within, say, 60-90 days. Sure, a PO announcement would be fun and exciting, BUT ... what would it actually have to do with VLNC business effectiveness? I'm saying that while WE may WANT a quick PO announcement, how does that ultimately serve the business per se. I don't see that it does, except in the most general sense as PR/IR fuel. I'm assuming that specific information about the state of VLNC's OEM relations is knowable to some (private/instit) and not others (me, us). Of course, I'm running these computations because I like the 24-36 month window. I like that you mentioned preservation of capital.