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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (32147)	8/19/1999 9:12:00 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 70976

Who can find the good news I can't and who can find the not-so-good news* Down significantly from last month 3 mo avg bookings down 8%, which means the month of July really sucked June revised downward and will the street puke up more shares?* *Unfortunately

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (32147)	8/19/1999 9:13:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Justa, re >will the street puke up more shares?< Yes, because >The bookings figure is eight percent below June 1999 < Unless the Street puked the last few days because it already knew? Nahhh! There couldn't be any leaks. Gottfried :)

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (32147)	8/19/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: Xpiderman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The July SEMI Book-to-Bill number of 1.11 is very troublesome, especially the sharp declining of new bookings! It turns out those ANAlyst were right somehow! The July booking number is subject to be revised, but for right now, the number is not good enough. geocities.com

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (32147)	8/19/1999 9:56:00 PM
From: w0z	Respond to of 70976

"The leveling of orders we're seeing at this stage of the recovery is consistent with analysts' predictions for slow and relatively steady growth in this cycle," The good news in this is that the recovery should be sustainable over a much longer period of time!

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (32147)	8/19/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Justa, Let my Pollyanna eyes take their best shot. 1. With the July report, the orders for June(preliminary) looked as though they had fallen sequentially from May(revised). With this report, the numbers for June(revised) are greater than May(Final). So what looked like a sequential drop in bookings was really an increase. Methinks that these early estimates of bookings and billings are given far more credibility than they deserve. 2. Orders remaining 20% more than billings indicates that the backlog is growing substantially, that lead times are extending, and that there's a risk of customers going elsewhere to get the desired delivery dates. i.e. A book to bill sustained over 1.20:1 is undesirable unless you make a shoddy product and that's the only way you can get a sale. With billing above $1.4B monthly, it's probably desirable to have orders not much more than 5% higher - a steady manageable growth that still permits customers to get satisfactory delivery dates. We can quibble whether the point where slower growth becomes desirable is 1.4B or 1.6B or whatever. But book to bills above 1.2 are really not desirable for anybody. ++++++++++++++++ Well how'd I do? Did I find any good news? I think I agree with your conclusion. The street is going to sell first and think later. Ian.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (32147)	8/19/1999 11:07:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Justa, Gottfried and threaders, Spreadsheet of the SEMI Orders, Shipment, BTB AMAT's RS monthly range and Industrial price ranking and Price range follow plus BTB # from 1991 to curreny. Anyone have Thursday's IBD's AMAT Data? Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site, IBD and SEMI sites. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." 1996/99 YEARS MTH Odrs Shpmt Act BTB Pr Rng RS Ind. Pr Rk JAN'96 (Low # best) FEB'96 1687 1243 1.1 MAR'96 1447 1256 1.15 APR '96 1361 1354 1.01 MAY'96 1187 1366 0.87 JU'96 1175 1354 0.87 JLY'96 992 1311 0.76 22-25 <10 AUG'96 882 1248 0.71 23-27 <10 SEPT'96 778 1119 0.7 24-30 11-15 OCT'96 833 1072 0.78 26-30 11-27 NOV'96 952 1062 0.9 27-40 15-79 DEC'96 1078 1069 1.01 35-40 60-87 JAN'97 1116 1034 1.08 36-49 65-94 FEB'97 1101 1029 1.07 41-55 90-95 MAR'97 1265 1102 1.15 44-54 94-95 APR'97 1386 1261 1.1 45-55 94-96 MAY'97 1421 1299 1.09 56-72 95-97 JU'97 1487 1375 1.07 58-75 95-97 JLY'97 1659 1476 1.12 74-95 95-97 AUG'97 1400.5 1536 1.1 89-108 96-99 SEP'97 1468.5 1672 1.06 92-104 OCT'97 1518 1793 1.02 52-31(split) NOV'97 1595.1 1598 1 40-29 DEC'97 1589 1559 0.99 35-26 JAN'98 1515.7 1458 0.93 27-34 40-58 FEB'98 1382.5 1369 0.9 38-35 70-44 MAR'98 1240.1 1370 0.82 32-36 62-36 APR'98 1136.9 1416 0.78 39-34 60-44 MAY'98 1107.1 1361 0.81 39-31 42-22 192-19 JU'98 932.7 1265.5 0.74 26-32 20-28 Jly'98 717.6 1112.1 0.65 28-34 22-54 AUG'98 571.6 1011.8 0.57 37-25 38-56 SEP'98 481.3 845.7 0.57 23-27 38-50 OCT'98 638 852.3 0.75 22-36 40-65 NOV'98 767.2 913.6 0.84 33-43 62-86 123-10 DEC'98 883.4 920.9 0.96 38-47 92-96 9-2 JAN'99 996.7 890 1.12 46-64 94-96 2-5 FEB'99 1028.8 845 1.22 56-71 94-97 4-7 MAR'99 1256.9 943.5 1.33 55-67 95-97 5-7 APR'99 1405.1 1099.1 1.28 49-68 82-96 48-52 MAY'99 1514.2 1216.7 1.24 53-67 82-88 91-48 JUNE'99 1526.4 1259.1 1.21 57-75 86-94 98-14 JLY'99 1405.7 1263.7 1.11 71-79 88-92 91-19 AUG'99 64-79 88-94 50-30 SEP'99 OCT'99 1991-current BTB # Below. YEARS AVER. MNTHY MNTHY MNTHLY MONTH 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 '91-98 STD HGH-DV LW-DEV JAN 1.23 1.09 1.12 1.17 1.32 1.28 1.08 0.94 1.12 1.15 0.116 1.266 1.034 FEB 1.12 1.2 1.15 1.13 1.41 1.36 1.07 0.9 1.22 1.17 0.152 1.325 1.021 MAR 0.91 1.13 1.12 1.07 1.3 1.15 1.15 0.82 1.33 1.109 0.164 1.272 0.945 APR 0.92 1.02 1.18 1.05 1.23 1 1.1 0.78 1.28 1.06 0.157 1.219 0.905 MAY 0.93 0.93 1.2 1.02 1.11 0.87 1.09 0.81 1.24 1.02 0.15 1.17 0.873 JUN 0.96 0.9 1.22 1.16 1.18 0.87 1.07 0.74 1.21 1.03 0.178 1.215 0.86 JLY 0.93 0.92 1.19 1.2 1.08 0.76 1.12 0.65 1.11 1 0.202 1.183 0.78 AUG 0.92 0.94 1.14 1.21 1.05 0.71 1.1 0.57 0.955 0.22 1.175 0.73 SEPT 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.7 1.09 0.57 0.918 0.184 1.102 0.74 OCT 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.12 1.07 0.78 1.05 0.75 0.977 0.14 1.114 0.84 NOV 0.96 1.03 1.05 1.19 1.06 0.9 1.02 0.84 1.01 0.107 1.113 0.9 DEC 0.98 1.08 1.19 1.29 1.15 1.01 0.99 0.96 1.1 0.117 1.266 0.962 YR AV. 9.84 1.019 1.134 1.137 1.165 0.949 1.078 0.78 1.238 1.04 0.156 2 0.088 YR SD. 0.096 0.092 0.0685 0.0823 0.1248 0.218 0.43 0.13 0.09 0.078 0.035 0.0686 1 YR HiD 1.08 1.111 1.2027 1.219 1.289 1.167 1.12 0.91 1.3 1.12 0.19 1.265 0.98 YR LO D 0.887 0.926 1.0656 1.054 1.04 0.731 1.035 0.65 1.12 0.962 0.122 1.128 0.78