Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (32177)	8/20/1999 12:14:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

World 128Mb DRAM Prices Fall Below Those for 64Mb Memories August 20, 1999 (SEOUL) -- The prices of 128Mb dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips dipped below those for 64M memory chips, creating a so-called "bit cross" situation. According to semiconductor manufacturers in Korea on Aug. 18, 64Mb chips are currently priced at US$7 per unit, while prices for 128Mb chips plummeted to US$14 per unit from US$40-45 set earlier this year. Under the bit cross situation, it is more economical to use 128Mb DRAM chips rather than 64Mb chips as the memory capacity for 128Mb memories is twice as large. Should the crossing situation continue, it will create a surge in 128Mb chip demand, thus intensifying a supply shortage possibly in the fourth quarter of this year. The 128Mb memory chip market, which has been mainly controlled by Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., Hyundai Electronics Industries Co., Ltd. and NEC Corp., will grow to 1 billion units in 2001 from 170 million units this year, according to a recent analysis by market research firm Dataquest Inc.. (Maeil Business Newspaper, Korea)

To: Gottfried who wrote (32177)	8/20/1999 2:17:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

G., Most of the reasons for my optimism have already appeared on this thread. 1. BK and others posting numerous stories re chip demand skyrocketing, DRAM prices firming, CapEx budgets growing, foundries at >100% of capacity, ... 2. AMAT conference call comments by Morgan: A. Wave 1- 0.18µ buildout B. Wave 2- Cu, Low and High K Dielectric tools C. Wave 3- 300mm. D. Far East decision makers / approvers on vacation until September. [Same is probably true for the rest of the world.] Normal seasonal order slowdown. Summers are not noted for high growth. Anyone who has worked for a large corporation knows how difficult it can be to get all the required decision makers to sign off on a "new" initiative during the summer. The only worse time is the last 3 weeks of December to the 2nd week of January. 3. Preliminary numbers understate the orders, sometimes significantly. To believe that this upleg is over from a chip equipment pricing perspective, one has to think that: 1. Cu R&D will stop dead in its tracks. No Cu pilot lines will be established. 2. Low K and High K dielectric tools will not be purchased or introduced into pilot lines. 3. 300mm process development will stop dead in its tracks. 4. Chipmakers operating at,near or above 100% Capacity utilization will willingly cede market share to their competitors. Yah, sure. In a pig's eye! Ian. [JMHO]

To: Gottfried who wrote (32177)	8/20/1999 4:47:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Respond to of 70976

G, Imho, it is you of those times where you have to hold your nose and buy. There is no way to know what the stock will do in the next 6 months. We can give better estimates of the direction the business is going in. Your charts show amat is at the best relative value since the beginning of the year.(The one where the stock price has dropped below the order line, finally, after being waay above it.) It is not a great value vs. past cycles or the same levels of orders. It would be at 45, if orders hold up. Why not institute a purchase plan down to 45? We did notice how incredibly well vs. past cycles amat's stock price held up in the last drop, and how it shot up on the turn farther and faster than before. The chances are, therefore, it simply won't get to the same bargain levels as before. Buying now has some downside, but the upside is awful big. If this is a fake out, ie, orders surge unexpectedly in the next 6 months and accelerate for the reasons Ian, Justa and Brian have been posting, the stock could hit 100.