To: Jan Crawley who wrote (74856 ) 8/20/1999 4:44:00 PM From: Eric Wells Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 164684
>>Am I still gambling, a small yes. Jan - I'm not worried at all about you - you are smart in that you are "gambling" with a small percentage of your capital (note however, that even smart people lose money by speculating - Isaac Newton lost a good portion of his wealth in the South Sea Bubble in 1720). It's the unsuspecting new investor that worries me - the one that looks at companies like Merrill Lynch and says to themselves "Merrill Lynch is an established and respected financial institution - if Mr. Blodget says 'buy AMZN', I'm buying Amazon" - and then they sink half their net worth into the stock, not fully understanding that AMZN has become an instrument of speculative play. These people number in the tens of millions. If a lot of these people lose a lot of money - it could have a negative impact on our economy. And this is the potential danger of our current situation. I suppose I am sounding overly negative - and I hate to sound negative, as I rather think of myself as an optimist. But there seem to be a number of factors that might indicate that our economy is being held in place by some very thin threads: 1. Incredibly high stock prices (when measured by all traditional methods). 2. Negative savings rate (are people sinking all their capital into stocks - or are they increasing their spending based on unrealized capital gains?). 3. Record high levels of personal and corporate debt (are people borrowing money with the expectation of their capital gains from soaring stock prices?). 4. Record level of bankruptcies (a natural result of #3) 5. Record trade deficit. 6. An atmosphere of euphoria - that we are at the height of the greatest economic expansion that this country has ever seen. If I write on this thread that we are at risk of a crash or that our markets are on shaky ground, I stand to be accused of crying "wolf" or of spreading fear. But if you look at historical bubble crashes, many of the factors listed above preceded such crashes. Will we crash? I don't know - and I'm certainly not going to try to predict. Are we at risk of a crash? Well if you agree that all the above are true, and if you agree that many of the factors above preceded previous crashes, then I would say yes. I dread the day when I get a call from my mother saying that a Merrill analyst called her and advised her to invest her entire retirement account into internet stocks. Oh and by the way - I have nothing against gambling - people should be free to gamble if they so choose. I've never won anything significant gambling though. Anyway, thanks for your comments. -Eric