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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (47747)	8/20/1999 5:59:00 PM
From: Chas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

I checked into this as I had a similar concern. I found out that the real cost for 128M is still higher than 2 64M with most suppliers so even if parity looks obvious, suppliers with this situation will not go for it as long as the 128M costs internally more. Now, maybe some are there, but not all yet. Best guess is it will take about 4-6 months to really drive down costs further before it makes sense for most of those guys, then Micron will be playing ball anyway. Samsung has the most experience and longest on the learning curve, so they may be ready but may or may not opt to do it. I will be watching Sept pricing and the 64M vs 128M to see which manufacturers are ready if any. If they are not, then the 128M will rise with 64M rising. It will be interesting. I think Micron is okay at this point. I see the article stating 128M is below 64M but there may be situations when a supplier may have extra product to move or he has opted to force to 128M and forget 64M like Toshiba. It just maybe that all suppliers may not join in to satisfy the world demand with 128M at once and may take a while. Good trading.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (47747)	8/23/1999 9:55:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

skeeter, you ask what happens when 128mb becomes cheaper than 64mb? The answer of course is that unless you can make a 128mb chip for less than 2 64mb chips, you lose more money. As I told you awhile back, the strategy of the Japanese producers to run away from 64mb to 128mb in search of better margins is doomed to failure. Could MU make 128mb chips instead of 64mb chips? Sure, if they wanted to, but they would only want to if it is cheaper. Is is cheaper? The die will be twice as big, of course, so good die/wafer will be cut by more than half. There are savings in packaging, of course, but until the cost falls low enough for the die this savings is not enough to offset the larger die cost. I suspect we are close to that point, but not there yet. Thus I would guess that 64mb chips are more profitable right now than 128mb chips. Carl