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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (23542)	8/21/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Don: Good observations about New Highs/New Lows... A look at the 10 day MA Differential shows an up movement... decisionpoint.com A look above that shows the Number of New Highs rising while the number of New Low shrinking... While not a perfect fit, there is a reasonable correlation between this 10 day MA and the NYSE composite... A continuation to the 0 line and above would be very positive... The major averages continue to bounce off support trendlines... decisionpoint.com And most importantly, those trendlines are angled up... After Alan Greenspan Does his thing on Tuesday I'm expecting the market to move up on increasing volume... Jim

To: donald sew who wrote (23542)	8/21/1999 2:07:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Don I see a great divergence in the market right now in the sense that we are having two markets going at the same time. I was just updating my sight and the stock charts look pretty cruddy still but when I looked into the indexes it is a whole different story. The DOW, SPX, OEX, NYSE all closed at fork resistance areas but if they were to go up and break through these tines and hold it, you wouldn't believe what it points to. I am targeting DOW 11500, 1380-90 SPX, and at least 720 OEX IF they are broken. Your statement about caution is well advised as there are all kinds of problems simmering in Brazil, Argentina etc, September is historiucally a lousy market month and earnings warnings season is just around the corner. There is about to be a vacuum of good news now that earnings are pretty much over with so I see no reason for the market to go up, but that is what the charts are pointing to if we hold above this resistance area. Also a new arrival to the MDA thread sent me an e-mail to have me look at some formations. WHile looking them over, I noticed some slight volume irregularities that are not clear cut but looking at the NYSE on hourly and daily charts, there was a slight volume spike on the the two most recent lows and a volume drop on the last pullback. The heaviest volume Friday was on the closing rally. There are hints that this could be the lull before the pop. I am not sure enough to bet it but I am leary enough to not be buying puts either. I will need to spend more time looking a few things over since as I said, most stocks look like crud, and the sector indexes are mixed with the telecoms getting killed, financials weak etc. The one thing that is a curiousity is how the major index charts seem to be pointing upwards but also show a top should occur in late September when we should get another down turn. The first half of this year seemed to mirror last year but was about a month ahead of schedule, now the charts seem to show the last half of the year may lag about a month. We could get last years August drop at the end of September beginning of October. Like I said, this is only a preliminary look so far but it did surprise me since I also thought the bias was down. Good Luck, Lee