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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (23555)	8/21/1999 6:32:00 PM
From: stockycd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee, I can't help thinking that they held the markets up for expiration like they did last month. There were a lot of puts bought toward the end of the correction (I bet many of them were speculative out of the moneys). All of the puts that I had been riding down in MRK and EBAY (thank goodness I got out before the upturn) expired completely worthless, for someone. I am aware of the max pain points but max pain is very hit or miss. I don't see how the Dow, a mere 100 points from an all time high, has the rate hikes priced in. Here are the reasons I see the market declining... -Increasingly weaker dollar -Rate hike coupled with problems in South America -Chinese deval. (it will happen!) -The Dow transports are still tanking, a double top in the INDU is my most possible senario. Out of those 4, I think the yuan deval. and the weak dollar are going to have the most impact. The rate hikes don't seem like such a big deal but if the Fed breaks bad and hits us with 1/2 point.... But really, who knows????? Chris