To: FR1 who wrote (14804 ) 8/22/1999 10:34:00 PM From: MIKE REDDERT Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29970
Good analysis Franz. I remember AOL when it was a half-baked online service behind Prodigy and Compuserve. AOL became what it is by forging into the internet while Prodigy (beginning to establish extra fees) and Compuserve were trying to resist giving up the per/minute fees that were far more lucrative. While $P$ and $C$ were fighting progress, AOL was mailing out free software, creating a simple interface, and developing "cute" features that people appreciated. They gained extraordinary brand recognition, over time, by "word of mouth" At this point, the tables have turned. We are entering a new phase of the "internet experience", that of Broad Band... and like $P$ and $C$, AOL is now resisting... not because they don't realize the potential, but because there is a very real possibility that they will become one of many that merely latch on to the high speed pipe. The future belongs to those providers that develop BB content in a simple to use but impressive fashion... and while AOL may have it on the "drawing board", I have yet to see their work in this area. Meanwhile, I see that Excite has began to develop the beginnings of BB experience in Excite.extreme. ATHM's strategy is comparable to that of AOL at the beginning of the public's "mass" entry into the internet. While AOL made it easy to connect by passing out free CD's, ATHM is attaching a modem to the end of a high speed pipe and hooking you up to a (hopefully) new and simple experience that (if executed properly ), will gradually develop into brand loyalty. Their software will theoretically be the first that you see, and you should be impressed if they do it correctly. Over time that will lead to the same brand loyalty that AOL enjoys now. Meanwhile, AOL is somewhat fettered in any attempt that it might make in presenting the BB experience. If they try to add it to their services, they have constant complaints from those who have dial-up service, and therefore are unable to access the BB sites. The overall implications are that it is unimportant what Excites page hits are at this point... what matters is how well Excite is developing it's BB experience. Certainly, those with dial up modems will switch to other services, because Excite is aiming at the future BB experience... those with dial-up will not be able to view their "enhanced" sites as they are developed. The implications for success are huge. I don't think that comparing ATHM to the AOL of yester-year are unreasonable. However, as always, it will depend on the execution of their business plan. So far, I think they are on the right track. Forget the page hits! They are meaningless! IMHO :) Mike