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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (5216)	8/23/1999 10:27:00 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike: Do you (and others) agree that investing in Rambus now is investing too soon when using gorilla-game criteria? Rambus sells an enabling technology which is bought by purist gorilla gamers no sooner than the start of the tornado. As I see it, the product hasn't crossed the chasm but it will do that and enter the tornado very, very quickly. Your thoughts? I don't think it is too soon to invest in Rambus; have been accumulating since Jan/Feb of '99, with average price of $71. My thoughts are that it is a reasonable strategy for me to invest sizeably in embryonic gorillas before the chasm is crossed, since I have 15% of my total stake in Rambus; the purpose is to catch the original huge run-up. And Moore states in the first chapter that Gorilla Game strategy is expected to miss the initial run-ups. The purpose of the strategy, as you know, is to insure large gains at very low risk. I started re-reading the Gorilla Game last night for the 2nd time, and will have to think about your question related to gorilla game criteria. What are the Gorilla Game criteria? There are the criteria of a gorilla; but the Gorilla Game criteria for investing may be different. Moore recommends investing in a basket of companies in a niche, because it may be hard to at first determine who the gorilla is or will be. What I don't remember is whether he says the basket should be of companies, all of which have crossed the chasm and have > 80% growth as seen in a tornado. Or can the basket be composed of companies that have not yet crossed the chasm? Ball's back to you Merlin. stan

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (5216)	8/23/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike: Rambus sells an enabling technology which is bought by purist gorilla gamers no sooner than the start of the tornado. As I see it, the product hasn't crossed the chasm but it will do that and enter the tornado very, very quickly. Been giving this more thought. Financially, Rambus is at ~$93/share now. By the end of the year, maybe $150/share with increasing publicity and real product availability. First evidence of the chasm crossed and the start of a tornado will not be available until the earnings from the 1st Qtr, 2000 are announced in April or so. By that time, maybe $200 - $250/share in anticipation? That's why I'm in now, at $71. However, this is risky; more risky than allowable in the Gorilla Game. Stan

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (5216)	8/24/1999 11:04:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, I know that I should read the next few posts before responding in case somebody else covers it, but here goes anyway. In regards to Rambus. A lot of thinking all year long has been - there's time yet to buy the stock (meaning fall is the first time units will ship using Rambus). Well, fall is approaching and the stock is, as it always has been, trading up in anticipation. Thinking of the value chain involved in this company, throw in the likes of Dell, Compaq and what about Qualcomm (isn't Rambus going to be providing memory for the handheld units using CDMA?) to the picture. Others will make the 'Rambus' standard memory for PC's, however with my understanding there will be license fees involved. I certainly believe that it fits in the category of a discontinuous innovation in terms of computer memory. That's the kind of thing a GG'mer should be sniffing out and setting a little cash into provided one has done some DD and understands the play. As you can see from my (dis)information, I'm not too schooled on it all yet, however I do own some shares for the long haul. Did you happen to catch the Thomas Siebel interview on CNBC yesterday? It was in response to Siebel being chosen as the number one fastest growing business in America (for whatever that's worth as we discussed). I enjoyed it. He personally claimed that he and Larry are not only good friends - they're neighbors. Siebel also stated he understood that Oracle's entry into the space has been delayed until sometime in 'summer 2000'. That's the kind of delay we like, right? In the meantime, Siebel holds claim to 68 percent of the world's market in their specialty. All in all, with the growth in the CRM/Front Office taking place, I feel pretty comfortable with my money riding with this stock. I'm not ruling out the others in terms of making some cash, but I don't have time to follow it all. Isn't that what GGaming is all about? Focus on the dominant? One last thing in regards to the corrective eye surgery. I certainly have been contemplating it since my Grandmother had one eye done at age 92. She didn't bother to do the other eye because she said "I'm not going to live long enough to enjoy it" (which turned out to be the case). I figure that since I survived that 'other thing' as a teenager even though everyone said doing it would make me go blind, I could survive this one as well. :-) BB