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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (32247)	8/24/1999 9:10:00 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

raising the interest rates by 1/2 point instead of the 1/4 point expected Tito, it'll never happen. Greenspan is a gradualist. He ALWAYS does thinks in small increments. Jay

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (32247)	8/24/1999 9:22:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Tito, Stick to the staircase!!! :-) Probability of a Fed hike greater than 0.25 today is much less than 0.1. If the knife used to cut into one's stomach is a Scalpel wielded by a skilled surgeon treating appendicitis, then this also can be a very good thing for the patient. I think Greenspan is a skilled surgeon not a thug in a dark alley. What was the market selling at in 1997? Now it's 2 years after the infamous "irrational exhuberance" comments. Is the market higher or lower? In the same vein as your proposal for a 50 bp hike today, I suggest that Glassman is completely accurate in his thesis that we're going through a one-time realignment of valuations based upon a revised view of the "equity risk". This revised view will take the Dow to 36000 within 5 years. <g> Ian. A knife when used to cut an apple is a helpful tool, but when used to cut into ones stomach --- becomes a lethal weapon. In 1997, when the Market was at its highest --- Analysts and Investors alike were ecstatic --- Alan said the Market was Too High. He was using his words as a tool to Talk the Market a little Down so that the Market won't go too high too fast to "unsustainable levels." What the Worldwide Market did was to cut itself with the Tool --- Investors pulled out their money here and abroad --- and the dreams of Analysts and investors alike of a still higher Market was cut short. The flow of orders for AMAT's Goods suddenly was Cut Short. Alan Greenspan, who serves as the Head of a Panel of Judges, Juries and Policemen in this Worldwide Market of ours could unwittingly cut the Market short again Today by raising the interest rates by 1/2 point instead of the 1/4 point expected... Then the Bullish Analysts and Investors who are still in the Market will be proved wrong again.