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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23815)	8/25/1999 5:57:00 PM
From: garrick le	Respond to of 99985

I feel that the Nasdaq will reach 2900 before the correction occurs so hang on for the ride (up and down). GL

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23815)	8/25/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: briskit	Respond to of 99985

Matthew, thanks for the work. I have been reading you with interest since you began posting at MDA. QQQ is looking more attractive to me as a trading vehicle, so I appreciate the tutoring. Good trading, Mike

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23815)	8/25/1999 6:34:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

Matt: Nice post, you have become a valued addition to this thread's many good contributors. I have got to believe that Donald Sew can relate to what you are posting. Per my many conversations with him, I know he works from the statistical likelihood as well...<gg> Playing the percentages over the long hall will pay off! Just remember to play your "stash" in percentages as well, so those occasional deviations don't take your "stash" to trash....<g> I use a different approach, but always play the likelihood as well. Regards, LG

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23815)	8/25/1999 6:46:00 PM
From: HighTech	Respond to of 99985

Matt: Good work! Appreciate your contributions. Keep them coming. HiTech

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23815)	8/25/1999 7:46:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Matt, I don't think you can statistically compare a normal rally with a rally following a strong decline. To gauge this rebound, you should only compare it to the snap back following this winter, last October etc. JMHO To the thread, I have been doing the role of first sergeant again so that is why I have been so quiet lately. I barely have time to do my own charts much less post. On this note, I want to also inform the few that still visit my site that this weekends update will be the last for one week. I am going to be working some odd ball nightshift hours and won't be able to update my site. Therefore I will do the normal weekend update, then take the site down to just a page that says gone fishing or something on Monday's close. <g> I will briong it back up the following weekend though and resume normal updates I hope until ????? As for the market, This rally was possible way back when when I posted that the bullish fork possibility fit very well and thatcould have been the bottom. Well, here we are and I hate to say it but we are going higher IMO. My personal opinion is we may consolidate soon since we are due. When? I don't have my data yet for tomight but I figure next week probably but only for a few days then we go up again. I don't think we will slow down until the PPI/CPI data is released or more serious earnings warnings start. Regardless, I am still sticking with my mid to late September time frame for the top although we are climbing so fast that we may hit my targets earlier. I wrote a long post about the internals, market bias etc last night then got squidded and wasn't about to do it again but we just finished a pullback where many were afraid to buy. In the mean time, there was two months worth of 401K and mutual funds inflows coming in with no where to go. Well it is getting spent now and until it is gone, we are going up. September inflows are just days away so this could last a while longer still. AS this last stash of money is used up, the earnings warnings start and the stale old slow untimely CPI and PPI reports get released finally reflecting oil prices from over a month ago, the market will start worrying about another rate hike and then the trade imbalance report will hit again yada yada yada and THEN we will will drop. After all this, who knows. Y2K will cause some J6Ps to pull their money out and some funds will want to beat them out the door. In the mean time, if the market isn't in melt down mode, foreign money will flood in since we are the most prepared nation in the world since we are about the only ones that had any money to spend on Y2K prep the last few years. Therefore, we could still have a X-mas rally but that is to be determined farther down the road. Of course all these outlooks are null and void if China devalues, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador etc get slammed but much of this is mute as inflows of cash are once again looking for a home and fundamentals no longer matter. Manias are not logical but this is about as logical as I can try to explain what I see. I dont see much of a case for a bearish bias here yet. Too much money and when a sector gets hit, another one is taking the lead. There are too many stocks that have spent the last 2-6 months in a sideways consolidation pattern that are now heading up. The sellers are gone and there is a line of buyers with wheel barrows full of cash waiting to buy. Short is wrong except for scalps right now, there will be a time to go short but it is still a ways off I think for buy a hold quadrupels. <ggg> One last thing, note that most stocks are climbing fast but then sitting for a few hours dipping and retesting new supports etc. This is showing me that this is not a blowoff yet but a steady climbing rally albeit at a brisk pace. Shorting for reasons other than a scalp play or as a hedge to longs is stepping in font of a freight train. I was unsure about how this was going to play out but when I saw telecom step in to take Banks place as a safer sector alternative to the techs, I now feel that this rally has legs. When IBM starts trying to hold up the DOW all by itself again, that will be the top. ( Hey, it worked the last three times <ggg> ) I am closely going to follow the charts now as the market approaches the bearish top tines and tried to lock in the bullish forks as the new guidance but I am about 80% sure that the bullish forks are going to win based upon the stocks ahead of the trend that have already done so. If the bearish lines hold, then we could reverse faster but I still feel we will make a higher low. Have to go. Save some good trading for me next week. As usual I am locked out of trading this week due to work. Good Luck, Lee

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (23815)	8/25/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hello Matt, >>As you probably know, one standard deviation includes 92.5% of all trades and two standard deviations include over 99% of all trades from the moving average<< Matt, this is the first post I've read of yours and you're either on to something real exciting or ....... If I find the time and/or interest I'll review your data. It's been too many years since my stat classes but only a few in my class actually had hand held calculators. I didn't and had to calculate the variance with pencil and paper and then determine its square root from finance charts. Now, unless things have changed a great deal since this old fart went to college (and this is from memory) one standard deviation is approximately 68%; 2 SD's is 95.5% and 3 SD's is 99.7% Take care, Eric