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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39602)	8/26/1999 9:12:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116822

Why We Should Worry About Oil In February this year, oil prices were as low as $9 a barrel, but prices are now at more than $20 and rising fast. The BBC's Rodney Smith examines whether we are on the verge of a new oil price shock. More than 25 years ago, the oil producers who then made up the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (Opec), held the world to ransom and at great cost. Oil prices rose four-fold over three months in early 1974. Street fuel prices surged, as oil companies rushed to pass the cost on to consumers. Oil-fired power stations went on to short-time working, oil traders were reputed to be holding loaded tankers offshore in anticipation of further price rises, speculators would buy and sell real and imaginary oil cargoes still in mid-ocean as the adventurous and the unscrupulous cashed in on disaster. Coping with the shock As these crippling prices became established, large American car manufacturers, desperate to supplement their fleets of gas-guzzlers with smaller cheaper cars, rushed out some ridiculous models; like the cut in half Valiant from Chrysler, and American Motors relic from a 1950s sci-fi film set, the nightmarish AMC Pacer, a broad inverted soup bowl of a car now much prized by collectors with a sense of humour. It also brought about the death of the petrol engine in London's black cabs; cheaper diesels replaced them. Back street garages sprang up everywhere to perform swift engine transplants. Share impact World stock prices plummeted. The popular predecessor to London's Footsie 100 share index, the 30-Share Index, fell to laughable levels and blue chip shares could be had for beer money in today's terms. Stockbrokers could almost give away shares in stalwarts of the economy like ICI, which deal heavily in plastics, oil and energy. Could this happen again? Probably not. World oil prices are above $20 a barrel after spending much of last year and early this year well below that. They could go even higher, says Leo Drollus of the London energy think tank, the Centre for Global Energy Studies. He's looking for $25 or more. news.bbc.co.uk

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (39602)	8/28/1999 12:14:00 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116822

WORST RALLY OF THE CENTURY? By one measurement, the ratio adjusted McClellan Summation Index, the rally to new all time highs this week by the Dow registered the lowest(worst) reading ever recorded by this big picture, advance/decline line barometer. And the fact that only a handful of narrow based high cap indices like the Dow and Nasdaq 100 made new highs(barely), while EVERYTHING else had pathetic bounces, strongly suggests that we may have just seen a very important stock market peak. And the way we closed the week on Friday, sets the stage for a possible plunge in the next 1-3 weeks. At a minimum I am looking for a decline to below recent lows(1267) in the S&P 500 cash index. When I review chart patterns in indices like the NYSE index, value line, bank index, Nyse financials, Transports, Russell 2000, the odds that a corrective rally completed after the first leg down of a Bear Market, or at the minimum a large ongoing correction, are VERY high! And what is nice about the Ewave patterns here are that we will quickly know where we are wrong, under the bearish scenario I see from here, there is no way the NYSE index should rally even close to last weeks high at 640.12. If it does, then another rally leg to new all time highs becomes the likely occurrence and the Bull market chugs on. Don't forget the importance of the "THEME" I have developed the past 6-8 weeks of a major U.S dollar top along with a major stock market peak, and continued higher interest rates. The last few weeks also saw the likely completion of a clearly corrective bounce in the dollar index(DXY), which rallied to the 50% retracement level of its recent 5-wave(Bearish) decline. And the bonds also had what so far looks to be a corrective decline in the ongoing Bear Market there, so that downtrend could very well resume. And then along comes Friday morning and Greenspans "broadside" at the stock market while speaking at the Fed Governors meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. One can and should ask the question whether this might simply be another "irrational exuberance" comment that the market will quickly overlook? Given what I see from the markets technical and Ewave patterns, I think this "broadside" will have much more significant and negative ramifications for the financial markets. Have a good week next week, it will probably tell an important story on where the markets are headed. MIKE DRAKULICH decisionpoint.com