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To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (3671)8/28/1999 10:21:00 AM
From: Gary Korn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10027
 
Herschel,

Thank you for the comments you made in response to my post. Coming from a very intelligent and market saavy person such as yourself, they really mean a lot. Of course, I hope you will do the opposite and tear into me when I screw up in my thinking. The objective here is to get to the bottom of things so that we know the true worth of what we own, and whether we should buy, hold or fold.

Gary Korn



To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (3671)8/28/1999 2:02:00 PM
From: Gary Korn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10027
 
Herschel,

For what it is worth, there are 64 trading days in 3Q, as opposed to 63 trading days in 2Q.

Dividing last quarter's earnings (.43) by 63, leaves us with a daily earnings number of .0068, or a little more than 1/2 penny per share. (Pretty much the same number obtains even if you divide 63 into a number such as .38, which is Merrill's lowered number for 3Q).

Thus, while 3Q will see a sequential decline in earnings due to lower volume/volatility (and analysts have now taken this into consideration), one wonders whether the extra 1/2 penny per share (which would be rounded up to 1 full penny) has been considered at all?

Gary Korn



To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (3671)8/28/1999 2:15:00 PM
From: Gary Korn  Respond to of 10027
 
Herschel,

From the 10Q: In the normal course of our market-making business, we maintain inventories of exchange-listed and OTC securities. The fair value of these securities at June 30, 1999 was $201.8 million in long positions and $219.3 million in short positions. The potential change in fair value, using a hypothetical 10.0% decline in prices, is estimated to be a $1.7 million gain as of June 30, 1999 due to the offset of losses in long positions with gains in short positions

Interestingly, there was in fact a 10% (and more) correction in the NASD in late July/early August. Therefore, one wonders whether NITE was able to take the theoretical, and potential, $1.7M gain, which would translate to over 1.6 cents/share (assuming 105MM shares).

Gary Korn



To: Herschel Rubin who wrote (3671)8/28/1999 2:23:00 PM
From: Gary Korn  Respond to of 10027
 
Herschel,

Still another tidbit. NITE took in $45M net last quarter. Subtracting the $8M it paid for EASDAQ (even though it appears to have been paid in late July or August), that leaves $37M extra as of June 30.

Invested at 5 percent interest, that extra $37M would earn about $.5M over 3 months. That is almost 1/2 cent per share.

One-half penny here, and one-half penny there, soon these things start to add up:

- 1/2 penny for the extra 3Q trading day.

- 1/2 penny for the extra $37M cash in the bank.

- 1 1/2 pennies (maybe) for having been net short going into the recent correction.

That would be an extra 2 1/2 cents for the 3Q alone. Then, add:

- 1 1/2 pennies in 4Q for the savings due to MER clearing.

That would be an extra 4 cents for 1999, which begins to be significant, given recent downward revisions.

Gary Korn